Kalshi making waves again as prediction markets draw CFTC lawsuits & state crackdowns; NYC-based Kalshi Inc. launched July 2021.
Recent activity on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi shows suspiciously timed bets on geopolitical events, including US military actions. California has introduced new regulations banning officials from profiting on nonpublic information, amid concerns over insider trading and potential influence on policy decisions. The debate highlights ethical and security risks.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket saw betting spikes on Oscar winners before the ceremony, suggesting some gamblers may have had early insights. Shifts in odds occurred for categories including Best Actor and Supporting Actress, with notable changes just hours before the awards.
The NCAA men's and women's basketball tournaments have seen a rapid decline in perfect brackets due to numerous upsets. Less than 1,500 perfect entries remain out of over 26 million, with major surprises like 12-seed High Point defeating Wisconsin. The unpredictability highlights the tournament's difficulty and the astronomical odds of perfect predictions.
Nebraska and Wisconsin are moving toward legalizing online sports betting on tribal platforms, amid ongoing debates over regulation and gambling addiction. Nebraska's prediction markets are already active, while Wisconsin's bill awaits governor approval, highlighting the evolving landscape of U.S. sports wagering.
Recent market activity before key government decisions has prompted scrutiny over possible insider trading. Trades across options, commodities, and prediction markets suggest some investors may have possessed privileged information. Authorities are monitoring these transactions, but no investigations have been publicly confirmed as of today, April 24, 2026.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are experiencing rapid growth, with trading volumes reaching $20 billion monthly. Regulators and tribal leaders are raising concerns over legality, potential fraud, and the impact on regulated gambling industries, prompting investigations and calls for tighter oversight.
A federal appeals court in Philadelphia has ruled that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive authority over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The decision affirms federal regulation over these platforms, challenging state laws and raising questions about industry legality and enforcement. The ruling impacts US operators and users today.
Multiple new accounts on Polymarket placed large bets on a US-Iran ceasefire before President Trump announced it, raising concerns over insider trading. Similar patterns have emerged around other geopolitical events, prompting investigations and legislative proposals to regulate prediction markets more strictly.
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi blocked Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal law's authority over state gambling laws. The ruling supports the CFTC's stance on federal regulation of prediction markets, delaying criminal proceedings scheduled for Monday, and signals ongoing legal battles over regulation and legality.
Governors of New York, Illinois, and California have issued executive orders banning state employees from engaging in insider trading on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The moves follow concerns over suspicious trades linked to geopolitical events, with no proof of illegal activity yet. Warnings have been issued, and legislation is being considered to tighten regulation.
Prediction markets like Polymarket are facing increased scrutiny after betting on sensitive events, including military rescues and international conflicts. Congress is considering bipartisan bills to regulate these platforms, citing concerns over insider trading, market integrity, and offshore operations. The White House has warned staff against using private information for trading.
Letitia James has filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini in Manhattan, alleging their prediction markets operate illegally without licensing. The lawsuits aim to stop these platforms from operating in New York until they obtain proper licenses. The companies argue their prediction markets are federally regulated, but the state maintains they are illegal gambling exposing young users.
Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been indicted on charges including unlawful use of confidential information, theft, and fraud after prosecutors say he placed bets on Maduro-related events on Polymarket, profiting more than $400,000 during Operation Absolute Resolve. The indictment links the trading to classified information and to efforts to conceal proceeds.
As of April 24, 2026, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been charged with multiple felonies for using classified information from a US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket. He has reportedly profited over $400,000 and faces up to 60 years in prison. Authorities have highlighted the breach of trust and ongoing investigations.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are under increased scrutiny after recent insider trading cases. Polymarket has flagged a soldier for using non-public information, while Kalshi emphasizes its regulatory compliance. Politicians and industry players are pushing for tighter regulation amid concerns over fairness and legality.
Gannon Van Dyke, a 38-year-old Army master sergeant at Fort Bragg, has been charged with using confidential government information for personal gain and other offenses linked to a $33,000 series of bets on the Maduro raid, which netted about $409,000 on Polymarket. He has been released on bail with travel restrictions and faces further court dates.
Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby has retained antitrust attorney Jeffrey Kessler as he faces an NCAA investigation into alleged gambling on college and pro sports. The case, tied to past wagers at Indiana and Cincinnati, could jeopardize his college eligibility and prompt a potential NFL supplemental draft if not resolved. Sorsby is currently undergoing treatment for a gambling addiction.
State budget talks remain unsettled as Gov. Hochul’s push to tie policy reforms to the budget has drawn criticism from Assembly Speaker Heastie and others, signaling a tense, ongoing fight over climate, immigration and fiscal priorities ahead of session end.
A U.S. Army special forces soldier has been charged after using Polymarket to bet on events tied to a Caracas operation that led to Maduro’s arrest. Authorities say he profited by leveraging classified information, prompting calls for stricter oversight of prediction markets that attract large wagers on current events.
Pratt has surged in early opinion indicators as he campaigns on homelessness, crime and city dysfunction, buoyed by viral videos and a standout debate performance. With early voting underway for the June 2 primary, analysts say a runoff remains likely if no candidate clears 50%.
The World Cup is expanding to 48 teams and 104 matches this summer, with sportsbooks and prediction markets driving a record- breaking wagering surge in the United States. Analysts say mobile betting, broader formats, and mainstream interest are fueling this growth, while U.S. lawmakers weigh regulation of prediction markets.
Minnesota has enacted a state ban on prediction markets, criminalizing creation, operation or advertising of such markets starting Aug. 1. The move has triggered a federal lawsuit from the CFTC, which argues the state oversteps its authority and undermines federal regulation. The ban centers on markets tied to sports, elections, and other future events, with penalties up to five years in prison and fines for operators.
Federal investigators are examining whether George Santos placed bets on Kalshi about his own attendance at the State of the Union, with the trades flagged by the market and referred to the DOJ and CFTC. Santos has previously been convicted and pardoned, and his current status is under scrutiny as prediction markets face regulatory pressure.