Iranian-American economist; chief economist of Moody's Analytics
Indirect talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan are pressing to implement the Islamabad Memorandum and to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Officials say progress is being made, with a monitoring channel set to report violations, and discussions on how part of Iran’s frozen assets could be used to purchase needed goods.
The labor market has a mix of resilience and weakness. Job openings remain elevated in some sectors while hiring slows overall, with unemployment near 4.1% to 4.2% and labor-force participation at historic lows for this cycle. New data suggest a stubborn, low-hire economy as rates stay high and uncertainty persists.
Warsh has moved to reduce forward guidance and may cut meetings, aiming to give the Fed more flexibility as markets react to his new approach while inflation remains above target.
The Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark rate steady in a nine-to-three vote, amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal. Dissenters argue for earlier tightening, while others urge patience; investors await July inflation data to gauge the path for policy.
Goldman Sachs economists have assessed AI investment's macro impact, finding that crowding out of other tech spending and higher borrowing costs exist but are smaller than media narratives suggest. They project AI capex will modestly boost GDP while shifting some resources from non-AI projects.
Inflation has remained stubbornly high as energy prices stay elevated following the Iran conflict. Across the U.S. and UK alike, prices have moved little since last month, with energy and food costs continuing to weigh on households. Analysts say ongoing volatility will keep consumer costs under pressure in the near term.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has told the Jackson Hole symposium that recent inflation readings have not shown that underlying trends have meaningfully improved and that short-term rates remain the Fed's primary tool. Markets have pushed up Treasury yields and raised odds of a September rate increase as officials debate whether to tighten policy.
The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.0% to tame inflation. The move will ripple through borrowing costs and savers. Credit-card rates, car loans, and mortgage-finance costs are likely to rise, while savers may enjoy higher deposit yields. The hike is the first since July 2023 and follows energy-price pressures.
The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point for the first time since 2023, moving the target to 3.75%-4.00%. Inflation remains above the 2% goal, and policymakers say they will slow spending and cooling the economy. Borrowers will pay more on mortgages and credit cards, while savers are likely to see higher returns on savings accounts and CDs.