Chief economist of Moody's Analytics; macroeconomist focusing on policy and markets
Oil prices remain elevated amid ongoing Iran‑related disruption, while markets price in a potential ceasefire. Banks warn long‑run inflation could drift lower on AI‑driven disinflation, but near‑term pressures keep the Fed and other central banks in a tighter stance. Investors are reassessing energy supply risk and policy outlook.
Developing signals around an AI-driven market rally point to a late-cycle melt-up risk, with indicators suggesting momentum could cool as funding and demand tighten. Investors monitor signs of a potential correction amid a still-lofty market backdrop.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Americans remain skeptical about lasting peace with Iran as an interim deal opens shipping lanes and eases some economic pressure. Gas prices stay elevated, inflation concerns rise, and Trump’s stance on Iran continues to shape political reactions.
Indirect talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan are pressing to implement the Islamabad Memorandum and to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Officials say progress is being made, with a monitoring channel set to report violations, and discussions on how part of Iran’s frozen assets could be used to purchase needed goods.