BoE MPC keeping rates steady as UK growth cools and Middle East tensions bite; policy chief Bailey and team weigh a potential December cut.
The Bank of England has voted 7-2 to keep its policy rate at 3.75%, with two members calling for a quarter-point rise. The decision follows weaker-than-expected UK inflation in May, signs of soft growth and a tentative US–Iran truce that has eased energy prices. Markets have pushed sterling lower and expect only one hike later this year.
The Bank has kept interest rates steady as energy prices fall, while inflation remains above target. Two MPC members favored a quarter-point hike, signaling ongoing caution about energy-driven inflation; overall inflation expectations remain sticky.
Inflation has risen to 3.3% in March as fuel costs jump amid Middle East tensions. BoE is holding rates at 3.75% while weighing energy-price shocks and growth risks. NatWest reports first-quarter profit, while Santander completes TSB takeover; economists warn policy may tighten if energy shocks persist.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research warns that the Middle East crisis has already slowed UK growth and could push the economy into a recession this year, with inflation rising on energy shocks and the Bank of England expected to respond with rate hikes.
The Bank of England has kept the base rate at 3.75% amid ongoing uncertainty from the Iran war and soft UK growth. Governor Bailey has signalled tolerance for inflation running above target in the near term to support the economy, but warns this will weaken if second‑round effects emerge.