American statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight
The midterm contests are intensifying as key Senate races move toward toss-ups amid headwinds from Trump-era unpopularity and internal party divisions. Republicans hold a fragile Senate edge while Democrats seek gains in Michigan, Maine, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio; fundraising and redistricting battles shape outcomes.
The president has traveled to Ohio to bolster Republican candidates ahead of the midterms, highlighting data-center policy and energy costs while facing questions about the economy and Iran-related tensions. The trip underscores concerns about inflation and turnout in key battleground districts.
The Iran war continues to drive global energy volatility. US forces maintain a naval blockade; oil prices have risen sharply, pressuring consumers as fuel costs stay elevated amid ongoing clashes and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US president has posted that Washington is pursuing productive discussions with Iran and will not attack Iran before the US midterm elections. The comments come as Iran tensions and carrier deployments intensify in the region, with competing narratives from Guardian, Arab News and AP about potential escalation and timelines.
Democrats have consolidated leads in final polls and forecasters ahead of Tuesday's midterms, making House control likely and giving them a real chance at the Senate. Early network calls on Wednesday have declared Abdul El‑Sayed the winner in Michigan's Senate race, making him the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate and a symbolic pickup for Democrats.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted attention for their accuracy ahead of and during elections, but analyses show mixed performance compared with traditional forecasts. While markets projected outcomes and saw record volumes in midterms, experts warn results are not a substitute for polling and raise questions about regulation and interpretation.