ONS in the news: UK stats agency underpins inflation, growth, and unemployment data as the IMF boosts UK forecast—ONS is the UK’s official stats body.
As of early April 2026, US 30-year fixed mortgage rates have climbed to 6.37%, up from under 6% six weeks ago, driven by the Iran war's impact on energy prices and inflation fears. This rise is slowing US home sales and mortgage applications during the spring buying season. In the UK, house prices fell 0.5% in March, slipping below £300,000, with mortgage rates rising above 5%, signaling a cooling housing market.
Recent forecasts from the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) indicate slower economic growth and rising unemployment for 2026. The outlook is now more uncertain due to escalating Middle East conflicts and policy impacts, with inflation expected to fall but remain volatile.
Global central banks, including the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, are maintaining current interest rates as oil prices soar due to the Iran conflict. The war has disrupted energy supplies, raising inflation concerns and delaying rate cuts. UK GDP remains stagnant amid geopolitical tensions.
Russia's health ministry has approved new guidelines requiring women who do not want children to see a therapist to foster positive attitudes toward childbirth. The policy aims to address declining birth rates amid demographic challenges, but its implementation and impact remain uncertain as official publication details are pending.
The UK government announced a £1 billion scheme to create 200,000 jobs for young people over three years. The plan includes incentives for employers, expanded apprenticeships, and a widened Jobs Guarantee scheme, aiming to address rising youth unemployment and NEET figures, with a focus on those on benefits and long-term unemployed.
The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) is revising its inflation measurement for 2026, adding new goods like houmous and non-alcoholic beer, and replacing manual price collection with supermarket scanner data for more accuracy. Changes aim to better reflect consumer habits amid rising health and lifestyle trends.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves outlined her strategy for economic growth, emphasizing AI, regional development, and closer EU relations. She announced a £2.5bn investment in advanced computing, including a £1bn quantum procurement program, amid weak economic data and global tensions. The speech signals a shift towards strategic state intervention.
UK wage growth slowed to 3.8% in the three months to January, the lowest since November 2020, amid a near five-year high unemployment rate of 5.2%. Rising oil prices due to Iran conflict threaten to sustain inflation, likely preventing interest rate cuts and impacting economic outlook.
UK inflation remained at 3% in February, with recent data showing a stable picture. However, experts warn that the conflict in the Middle East, which escalated at the end of February, will likely cause inflation to rise sharply in the coming months due to higher energy prices. The latest figures do not yet reflect this impact.
The UK economy's growth forecast for 2026 has been downgraded by the OECD to 0.7%, the second-lowest in the G7, due to energy supply disruptions and inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. The economy flatlined in January, with inflation expected to rise to 4%.
The UK government has introduced new school food standards to improve nutrition and combat childhood obesity. The reforms ban deep-fried foods, restrict sugary desserts, and require more fruit, vegetables, and wholegrains. The changes, starting from September 2026, include phased implementation and a nine-week consultation process.
Israel and the UK see prices and rents easing in parts of their markets, while Australia faces affordability limits. Across regions, supply gaps and policy shifts are shaping buyer and renter behavior amid geopolitical tensions and rising rates.
UK inflation has accelerated to 3.3% in March, driven by higher fuel prices due to the Iran war. The UK labour market shows signs of softening, with unemployment falling to 4.9%, but wage growth remains subdued. The Bank of England is monitoring these trends closely as it prepares for upcoming policy decisions.
Inflation has risen to 3.3% in March as fuel costs jump amid Middle East tensions. BoE is holding rates at 3.75% while weighing energy-price shocks and growth risks. NatWest reports first-quarter profit, while Santander completes TSB takeover; economists warn policy may tighten if energy shocks persist.
The Office for National Statistics has shown March inflation at 3.3%, driven by higher motor fuel prices and air travel costs. Analysts expect energy bills to rise later this year amid geopolitical tensions, while clothing costs have eased. Next month’s data may reflect changes in the energy price cap and further shifts in transport pricing.
The UK has reported a lower-than-expected public sector deficit of £132 billion for the year to March, driven by higher tax receipts. However, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to increase borrowing costs and reduce fiscal space, threatening future economic stability.
A Health Foundation analysis shows the UK’s healthy life expectancy has fallen for both men and women from 2012–14 to 2022–24, with pronounced inequality between rich and poor areas. Experts call for bolder, cross-government action beyond NHS remedies, citing obesity, mental ill health, and avoidable illness as drivers. The government faces pressure to shift policy toward prevention and social determinants of health.
Inflation in the UK and US remains under pressure as the ongoing Middle East conflict sustains higher energy prices. UK CPI has fallen to 2.8% in April, but analysts warn this may be a brief respite as fuel and gas costs rise. Producer prices in the US have surged in April, signaling rising costs before they reach consumers.
The UK economy has grown 0.3% in March and 0.6% in the first quarter, surprising economists as the Iran war continues to weigh on outlook. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has defended the government’s stance on economic stability, saying choices have strengthened the economy as political leadership questions persist.
IPPR-backed rent controls gain traction as UK ministers weigh options to curb private-sector costs amid inflation and higher living costs. Separate campaigns highlight the burden on renters, with fresh data showing millions struggle with unaffordable rents and timelines for when incomes are consumed by rent.
The IMF has upgraded the UK’s 2026 GDP growth to 1.0% from 0.8%, citing pre-war momentum while warning the Iran war could dampen activity later in the year. The update follows recent data showing stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, with the IMF cautioning that higher energy prices and political uncertainty could weigh on the outlook.
Official data show the UK unemployment rate has risen to 5% in the three months to March, with pay growth slowing to 3.4% and a sharp 100,000 fall in payroll employees in April. Vacancies have dropped to a five-year low as firms in retail and hospitality curb hiring amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Iran war and rising energy costs.
The government has signalled it is considering voluntary price caps on essential groceries and is offering incentives to supermarkets, including easing packaging rules and delaying healthy-food changes. The moves follow Labour-backed measures and CMA reforms, with ministers saying they want to keep costs down for families amid ongoing inflation and global supply pressures.
UK annual inflation has slowed to 2.8% in April, down from 3.3%, driven by lower energy prices and regulated bills. Core inflation has also eased, though analysts warn the Iran war energy shock could push prices higher in coming months. Chancellor Reeves is poised to announce measures to help households, including potential fuel duty relief and voluntary price caps on essentials.
Public misperception of net migration in Britain persists as official data shows a sharp fall in arrivals. Thinktanks warn that political rhetoric, not numbers, is shaping the immigration debate.
Labour figures are highlighting measures to ease the cost‑of‑living squeeze while facing internal dissent after recent election setbacks. By‑election campaigns in Makerfield and policy proposals vie for influence as government rhetoric emphasises delivering on promised changes.
The Bank of England has kept rates at 3.75% amid uncertainty from the Iran war and weak UK growth. Governor Andrew Bailey has signalled a tolerance for inflation running above target in the near term to support the real economy, provided there are no clear second‑round effects.