An intergovernmental cartel shaping global oil supply
The United States has carried out repeated air and naval strikes across Iran since mid‑July, targeting coastal surveillance, air defences, missile and maritime sites to degrade Tehran's ability to attack shipping. Iran has responded with ballistic missiles, kamikaze drones and strikes on US bases and Gulf allies, disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and raising global energy market disruption.
Iraq’s prime minister travels to Washington to deepen economic ties as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and fighting between the US and Iran intensifies. Oil output, IMF talks, and potential US investment are on the table while Iran-backed groups push back against disarmament. Diplomatic prospects hinge on stabilizing energy flows and expanding state control over weapons.
The United Arab Emirates has announced it has withdrawn from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, saying a review of its production policy and expanded domestic capacity require greater national control. The move removes a major spare-capacity holder and will weaken OPEC's ability to stabilise global oil supply when Gulf shipping resumes.
The UAE has exited OPEC and is re-evaluating its multilateral commitments, signaling a shift in Gulf dynamics. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain economically intertwined despite strategic disagreements, with both states prioritizing autonomy and continued trade.
The UN World Food Programme has warned that higher oil prices and disrupted trade have pushed an extra 2.5 million people in Somalia, 2.3 million in Afghanistan and 1.3 million in Sri Lanka into acute food insecurity, and that up to 45 million more people globally could face hunger if fuel stays near $100 a barrel through June 2026. The agency has also reported funding shortfalls that are forcing it to cut aid and will leave 1.5 million fewer people served this year.
Oil and petrol prices have fallen after the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but global inventories and U.S. strategic reserves have dropped to decades-low levels and will take months to rebuild. Consumers are seeing smaller pump prices now; wholesale and crude markets remain fragile while production, shipping and refinery capacity restart is underway.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point as multiple sources indicate shifting dynamics in Gulf oil flows. Analysts say international pressure, sanctions, and ongoing fighting shape when and how Gulf oil will move, with some shipments reappearing while overall volumes stay depressed. The pace of mine clearance, lane re-opening, and fleet re-mobilization will determine when prewar flows resume.
U.S. and Iran have moved toward a final deal on ending fighting in Lebanon and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran continues to press for economic benefits. Mediators report progress, but the region faces renewed instability as Declarations surface about the strait’s status.
APEC discussions have highlighted a widening gap between the US and China on trade, even as Beijing’s commitments to Boeing orders and US agricultural purchases signal ongoing economic ties. APEC ministers are urging faster implementation of agreed outcomes, with potential shifts as Xi and Trump are expected to meet later this year.
Oil prices have extended declines as tanker exits from the Strait of Hormuz ease supply fears, even as a vessel is attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Brent trades near $72.76 a barrel and WTI around $69.84, with markets watchful of US-Iran tensions and ongoing evacuation plans by the IMO.
Public and parliamentary pressure in Egypt calls for lower fuel, gas, and electricity prices as the government balances subsidies with IMF conditions. Lawmakers question price reforms while experts warn that global trends and regional tensions continue to influence domestic costs.
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have risen this week amid shifting navigation guidance and ongoing tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Oman. Observers report mixed routes with a northern Iranian corridor and a southern Omani corridor, while the broader risk to shipping remains elevated.
OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil output by 188,000 barrels per day from August, marking the fifth straight monthly rise. While the move signals a cautious unwind of earlier cuts, oil supplies remain constrained by the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing regional tensions. Prices have edged back toward pre-war levels as shipping resumes.
The US and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes this weekend and on Monday, reversing a recent interim ceasefire and re‑opening doubt over control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has declared the ceasefire "over," ordered further strikes and revoked a temporary oil waiver. Oil has jumped into the high $70s–$80s and global markets have fallen.
The United Arab Emirates is pursuing a new port and container terminal on Fujairah’s east coast to reduce dependence on Jebel Ali and avoid the Strait of Hormuz. DP World is in talks to develop the site, with plans for a new multipurpose port and a terminal at the existing harbour, amid ongoing clashes linked to Iran’s attacks and U.S. and Israeli actions. Experts say the move signals a push for regional resilience as shipping routes face disruption.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have threatened to close key export routes as U.S. strikes continue and Houthi attacks escalate. Tehran is signaling it could disrupt Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, widening pressure on Washington and imperiling a large share of global energy shipments.
The United States has welcomed a plan to rehabilitate the Iraq-Syria crude oil pipeline, linking Kirkuk to Syria’s Mediterranean port of Baniyas. A US-led consortium will oversee technical and financial aspects, aiming for an initial capacity of 2 million barrels per day while reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude has risen above $90 a barrel after renewed US–Iran strikes and a US naval blockade prompted fresh attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker transits have fallen sharply, insurers and analysts warn supply costs will rise, and US gasoline prices are climbing toward $4 a gallon.