Pantheon Macroeconomics in the headlines over UK/US macro twists; founded by Ian Shepherdson, famed WSJ 2014 US forecaster of the year. Short, sharp econ read.
The UK has reported a lower-than-expected public sector deficit of £132 billion for the year to March, driven by higher tax receipts. However, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to increase borrowing costs and reduce fiscal space, threatening future economic stability.
The UK economy has shown resilience earlier this year, but new data indicate an upcoming test as an energy shock from the Iran conflict pushes petrol prices higher. April retail sales have fallen sharply, including a 10.2% drop in motor fuel sales, suggesting GDP momentum will cool in Q2 after March’s 0.6% growth.