Economic research consultancy founded by Ian Shepherdson in 2014
Oil markets have shifted as the U.S. and Iran outline a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and WTI hover around the mid- to high-80s/low-90s as sanctions waivers enable resumed Iranian exports. Global stocks move with muted optimism while gas prices remain elevated compared to prewar levels.
New data show the UK economy has cooled after a stronger start to 2026, with April GDP expected to slip as higher fuel costs damp demand. Retail sales have fallen, and experts warn the energy shock from the Iran conflict is weighing on households and firms. Analysts expect a continued slowdown into Q2.
Inflation has held steady at 2.8% in May, the same as April, with transport costs (air fares, petrol) and taxes offset by slower food price rises. Petrol and fuel costs rise; airfares surge due to Easter timing, while food and heating costs ease. The Bank of England faces decisions as rate prospects remain uncertain.
The leadership race has intensified as Andy Burnham is seen as the frontrunner to become prime minister, with markets seeking stability. Economists warn that the next chancellor will shape bond markets and fiscal policy, while Burnham pledges to follow fiscal rules and reduce bills. The City remains anxious about potential changes in taxation and public spending.
July saw only modest 0.1% month-on-month growth in UK house prices, with annual growth slowing to 1.8%. Affordability remains a challenge as mortgage rates rise amid geopolitical tensions. Northern Ireland leads price gains while the south and London lag. The Bank of England cautions inflation pressures could rise if the Iran conflict persists.
GDP has expanded by 0.4% in Q2, driven by services and a hot-weather World Cup boost. Yet growth remains delicate amid high energy prices and geopolitical tensions, with Treasury modelling warning of a slower 2027 if Iran-hostilities persist.