Pantheon Macroeconomics: a Newcastle-based macro research firm led by Ian Shepherdson, shaping market views on growth, inflation, and policy.
Official figures from the Office for National Statistics are expected to show the UK economy has maintained growth in the second quarter, with GDP likely rising around 0.4%. Services and manufacturing input point to resilience despite supply pressures and political uncertainty. Analysts warn June may show a dip as heatwaves bite activity, but a quarterly rebound remains probable.
Oil markets have shifted as the U.S. and Iran outline a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and WTI hover around the mid- to high-80s/low-90s as sanctions waivers enable resumed Iranian exports. Global stocks move with muted optimism while gas prices remain elevated compared to prewar levels.
New data show the UK economy has cooled after a stronger start to 2026, with April GDP expected to slip as higher fuel costs damp demand. Retail sales have fallen, and experts warn the energy shock from the Iran conflict is weighing on households and firms. Analysts expect a continued slowdown into Q2.
Inflation has held steady at 2.8% in May, the same as April, with transport costs (air fares, petrol) and taxes offset by slower food price rises. Petrol and fuel costs rise; airfares surge due to Easter timing, while food and heating costs ease. The Bank of England faces decisions as rate prospects remain uncertain.
The leadership race has intensified as Andy Burnham is seen as the frontrunner to become prime minister, with markets seeking stability. Economists warn that the next chancellor will shape bond markets and fiscal policy, while Burnham pledges to follow fiscal rules and reduce bills. The City remains anxious about potential changes in taxation and public spending.
UK house prices have shown only marginal growth in July, with a 0.1% month-on-month rise and a 0.1% year-on-year increase. Affordability remains a challenge as mortgage rates edge higher amid geopolitical tensions. Northern Ireland leads gains, while the south and London lag.