Economic research consultancy founded by Ian Shepherdson
July saw only modest 0.1% month-on-month growth in UK house prices, with annual growth slowing to 1.8%. Affordability remains a challenge as mortgage rates rise amid geopolitical tensions. Northern Ireland leads price gains while the south and London lag. The Bank of England cautions inflation pressures could rise if the Iran conflict persists.
GDP has expanded by 0.4% in Q2, driven by services and a hot-weather World Cup boost. Yet growth remains delicate amid high energy prices and geopolitical tensions, with Treasury modelling warning of a slower 2027 if Iran-hostilities persist.
Economists have forecast July GDP to be flat with June, after growth in June. July’s annual output is 1.6% higher than a year earlier, the fastest since February 2025, with services strength offsetting declines in production and construction. The Bank of England sees growth this year near 1.1% as inflation remains a focus.
Inflation has moved higher in August, driven by petrol, diesel and airfares, according to ONS data. The figures have heightened expectations for the Bank of England’s next move as energy-price caps are updated and aviation costs rise.
Inflation has climbed to 3.1% in August, driven by higher fuel prices and airfares, with energy bills expected to push prices higher in October. The ONS notes some items cooled, but the trend points to further gains in the months ahead as energy pressures persist.
The UK has borrowed £18.3bn in August, the ONS has reported, topping City and OBR forecasts and leaving year‑to‑date borrowing at £77.3bn — £8.1bn above the OBR projection. Rising gilt yields have pushed debt interest to record August levels and are narrowing Chancellor John Healey’s fiscal headroom ahead of the 28 October Budget.
Diesel prices have surged to new highs in the UK amid global supply disruptions linked to the Iran war and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US is weighing export bans to ease domestic pain, while Europe and the UK face rising costs and tight supplies. Authorities warn prices will likely rise further as markets react.