Global crypto-based prediction market
Prediction markets have seen a surge in notional volume in June as FIFA World Cup excitement sustains trading on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Rothera. International platforms report sustained high open interest and volumes, while regulators monitor market integrity amid heightened activity.
State budget talks remain unsettled as Gov. Hochul’s push to tie policy reforms to the budget has drawn criticism from Assembly Speaker Heastie and others, signaling a tense, ongoing fight over climate, immigration and fiscal priorities ahead of session end.
The SAVE America Act has become a central GOP priority as midterms approach. POLITICO polling shows core provisions have some support, notably voter-ID requirements, but overall enthusiasm for the sweeping elections bill remains limited and partisan divides are sharpening ahead of voting.
The Times has found that hundreds used prediction markets to place bets on geopolitical events, some with ties to insiders; Israel has attacked Iran, earning profits for some bettors. The activity raises questions about insider trading and the role of crowd-sourced forecasts in high-stakes conflicts.
The World Cup is expanding to 48 teams and 104 matches this summer, with sportsbooks and prediction markets driving a record- breaking wagering surge in the United States. Analysts say mobile betting, broader formats, and mainstream interest are fueling this growth, while U.S. lawmakers weigh regulation of prediction markets.
Minnesota has enacted a state ban on prediction markets, criminalizing creation, operation or advertising of such markets starting Aug. 1. The move has triggered a federal lawsuit from the CFTC, which argues the state oversteps its authority and undermines federal regulation. The ban centers on markets tied to sports, elections, and other future events, with penalties up to five years in prison and fines for operators.
The Makerfield by-election has shifted the political calculus as Andy Burnham edges closer to Westminster, with market nerves and party insiders weighing how the leftward tilt could reshape Labour and challenge Keir Starmer. Immigraiton and economic policy sit at the center as Reform and Restore Britain struggle for traction.
Federal investigators are examining whether George Santos placed bets on Kalshi about his own attendance at the State of the Union, with the trades flagged by the market and referred to the DOJ and CFTC. Santos has previously been convicted and pardoned, and his current status is under scrutiny as prediction markets face regulatory pressure.
The 2026 World Cup has boosted betting activity across prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks. Analysts expect record wagers in the U.S. and rising interest in data providers and travel stocks as the tournament unfolds in North America.
Kalshi has started collecting job information to screen markets at heightened risk of manipulation and is rolling out a risk-scoring system plus 24/7 whistleblower channel. The measures aim to curb insider trading after a string of cases across Kalshi and Polymarket, including investigations into George Santos and a Google insider-trading case.
A federal judge has weighed whether to block Sunday’s UFC fight on the White House South Lawn. The event, marking Trump’s 80th birthday, is backed by a private-public partnership and features a 92-foot arch called “The Claw.” Critics argue the setup commercializes national monuments; supporters say it showcases a national celebration amid the semiquincentennial.
The White House hosts a $60 million UFC event on the South Lawn, with the Claw structure towering over the grounds and sponsors plastered across the Octagon. Officials say production is a major marketing push despite ongoing geopolitical tensions as the Iran situation unfolds.
Polymarket bettors had wagered nearly $1 million on Spain to win Group H, but Cabo Verde’s goalkeeper Vozinha made seven saves to secure a 0-0 draw. The result upends expectations and triggers seven-figure payouts for a rival bettor, highlighting the volatility of prediction markets in the World Cup.
Meta has paused its Model Capability Initiative after a privacy backlash and a data-access leak. The program tracked employees’ keystrokes and mouse activity to improve AI models, prompting protests and internal scrutiny. The pause follows reports that data tables were exposed within the company. Meta says it will investigate and respect personal choices on participation.
TechCrunch and other outlets report a wave of AI agents moving into consumer tools. OpenClaw launches on iOS/Android; Acti unveils an agent-enabled keyboard; OKX launches AI agents marketplace; Meta exploring Arena-style prediction markets; Bloomberg/Times detail Kalshi and Polymarket stakes.
New York has held its first-ever Knicks ticker-tape parade after the team has won the NBA title, drawing an estimated two million fans to Lower Manhattan on June 18. Mayor Zohran Mamdani has presented the team with keys to the city; Alicia Keys performed and a heavy NYPD security deployment managed crowds and closures.
Markets have paused after a volatile session driven by Micron’s double-digit gains, strong GDP growth data, and mixed tech earnings. Traders show caution as options activity suggests dealers are hedged, potentially keeping indices in a narrow range amid a June expiry
Nigel Farage faces renewed questions over finances after revelations of a £5m gift and payments from Direct Bullion and other crypto-linked associates. MPs’ interests show substantial payments for promotional work, while critics demand greater transparency and accountability.
A series of cyber intrusions has disrupted firms, with Jaguar Land Rover’s 2025 hack cited as a catalyst. Investigations point to Russian-linked actors, while other breaches continue to unfold.
Nigel Farage has resigned as Clacton MP and has stood again in a by‑election set for 13 August after revelations about undeclared gifts and donations. Major parties are refusing to contest the seat; the campaign is dominated by novelty and fringe candidates such as Count Binface and Laurence Fox while parliamentary and criminal inquiries continue.
Goldman Sachs has updated its personal trading policy to bar employees from trading on event-based contracts tied to the bank, elections, financial markets and geopolitics. The move aims to curb the risk of insider trading and conflicts of interest as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi expand activity. Other banks are reviewing policies as regulators watch closely.
Bryce Harper has recorded a personalized video for a high-rolling FanDuel customer amid a gambling case involving FanDuel and DraftKings. The video has raised questions about the relationship between athletes, sportsbooks, and promotions that may affect vulnerable bettors. Several outlets report the same developments, with Harper stating he did not knowingly endorse gambling promotions.
Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara has arrived in Miami after a five-year prison sentence in Cuba. The exile follows a U.S. parole grant and mounting diplomatic pressure. He is the cofounder of the San Isidro Movement, whose members have faced persistent repression in Cuba.
Michael Burry has built positions in Flutter and DraftKings, arguing regulation and taxation will force prediction markets to fit under broader rules. He says the market is in a regulatory loophole and will be subsumed by tighter oversight as enforcement rises.
The former New York representative has been announced as a contestant on Fox’s fifth season of Special Forces: World’s Toughest Test, set to air in September. The show will test participants with extreme military-style challenges in a Malaysian jungle, pitting Santos against other celebrities and athletes. Santos has faced criminal charges and was expelled from Congress after fabricating parts of his life story.
The White House has placed Gabriel Perez, a teleprompter operator who has worked for the president since 2016, on unpaid administrative leave after Kalshi flagged suspicious bets tied to words in presidential speeches. Kalshi has referred trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and has frozen more than $90,000 in accounts while regulators investigate.
Regulators in France and the United States are clamping down on online prediction markets amid worries about betting on real-world events and misuse of information. France blocks Polymarket’s site for advertising, while ANJ warns fines could reach 100,000 euros. Separate cases involve a teleprompter operator accused of betting on Trump speeches and a US soldier charged over bets tied to a Maduro operation.
Kalshi has launched the Midterms Hub, a live-prediction hub that aggregates odds, polling data, fundraising figures, and analysis for U.S. elections. The platform emphasizes real-time market insights alongside traditional polls, with most visitors not placing trades.
Courts have blocked Minnesota’s prediction market ban, while federal agencies push for broader regulation and states push back. The cases test federal preemption versus state gambling authority, with ongoing litigation and potential appeals shaping the future of event-contract markets.
New York has filed a state Supreme Court lawsuit against Kalshi, arguing the prediction market operates as an illegal gambling platform under state law. The action seeks restitution, forfeiture of illegal gains, and penalties while Kalshi maintains it operates under federal jurisdiction and criticizes the move as political theater.
Amazon has disclosed a $600 million tariff refund in Q2 after a Supreme Court ruling found Trump-era tariffs illegal. The refunds, largely benefiting customers, will be issued automatically where specific charges can be traced. Most refunds will go to affected buyers, with third-party sellers absorbing the bulk of the levies.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has settled with George Santos, banning him from trading for three years, and ordering him to forfeit more than $17,000 and pay a $17,500 penalty for trading on Kalshi bets about the State of the Union attendance. Santos’s lawyer says the resolution puts this matter behind him, with no admission of wrongdoing.