Independent macroeconomic research consultancy led by Roger Bootle
A tentative deal has reopened the Strait of Hormuz and allowed some vessels to leave the Persian Gulf, but global oil flows have not returned to normal. Producers and shipowners have cut output and delayed shipments; tankers stranded in the Gulf and shut-in fields will take weeks to months to restart full exports, keeping pressure on prices and inventories through summer.
China's official manufacturing PMI has edged into expansion at 50.3 in June from May's 50.0, with improvements in new orders and production. Export demand remains a key engine, while domestic consumption shows caution amid a prolonged property downturn. Analysts expect policy support to sustain momentum.
Financial markets are pricing in the political shift toward a Burnham-led government, with mortgage costs sensitive to fiscal signals. Housing policy is expected to intensify, with calls for a major council-house building programme and tighter rental regulation. Homeowners, buyers and landlords should watch mortgage rate trajectories as markets interpret the new government’s fiscal discipline and spending plans.
China has expanded 4.3% year on year in Q2, the slowest pace in over three years. Exports have helped but domestic consumption remains sluggish, with a trade surplus widening as global demand for AI-driven goods supports shipments. Analysts caution that sustained growth depends on domestic demand improving.
Public borrowing in July stands at 1.8 billion, above forecasts, with four-month deficit at 56.7 billion. Tax receipts hit a record for July, but spending growth outpaced receipts, keeping debt near 3 trillion and GDP share at about 94%. Chancellor Healey to unveil October Budget amid fiscal discipline pledges.
A mix of mortgage rates remaining elevated and inventory growth is shaping US and UK housing markets. Cash sales have cooled, financed buyers are gaining ground, and prices show modest changes in several markets. Analysts warn of continued affordability challenges and potential further rate-related pressure.
Indonesia's leadership has approved added funds to the budget, with finance officials noting the move could be classified as non-tax state revenue to help narrow the year's fiscal deficit. Government seeks 6% growth by 2027 while keeping the deficit at or below 2.4% of GDP, and foreign appetite for Indonesian debt remains robust amid healthy inflows.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has told the Jackson Hole symposium that recent inflation readings have not shown that underlying trends have meaningfully improved and that short-term rates remain the Fed's primary tool. Markets have pushed up Treasury yields and raised odds of a September rate increase as officials debate whether to tighten policy.
The US has reached an agreement with Venezuela’s interim government to secure majority control of rights to about 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. The deal creates a private joint venture with Venezuelan billionaire Alejandro Betancourt’s firm, gives the US effective majority output and promises nearly $100bn in private investment, though no contract text or financing details have been released.
Lloyds Bank has reported that UK house prices have fallen 0.4% year on year in August, marking the first annual decline since November 2023. The typical UK price is 298,468 pounds, with monthly changes showing a 0.2% decrease in August after July. Experts say prices remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, but affordability pressures persist across regions. Analysts forecast ongoing subdued activity in the coming months as borrowing costs and geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment.
Existing US home sales have declined for a third straight month, with August activity down 2% from July to a 3.98 million annual pace. Inventory has risen to 4.9 months, the highest in over a decade, while prices continue to rise as buyers contend with elevated borrowing costs.