Independent macroeconomic research consultancy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% in the 12 months through May, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, driven largely by a surge in energy and gasoline costs. Core inflation has remained cooler at 2.9%, while producers’ prices and oil-driven wholesale gains have also accelerated ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.
The CPI has climbed 4.2% year over year in May, driven by energy costs amid the Iran conflict. Officials say inflation remains a pressure point for households while policy makers weigh rate moves; Trump has touted inflation as a sign the economy will improve after the conflict.
A tentative deal has reopened the Strait of Hormuz and allowed some vessels to leave the Persian Gulf, but global oil flows have not returned to normal. Producers and shipowners have cut output and delayed shipments; tankers stranded in the Gulf and shut-in fields will take weeks to months to restart full exports, keeping pressure on prices and inventories through summer.
China's official manufacturing PMI has edged into expansion at 50.3 in June from May's 50.0, with improvements in new orders and production. Export demand remains a key engine, while domestic consumption shows caution amid a prolonged property downturn. Analysts expect policy support to sustain momentum.
A wave of commentary and policy proposals surrounding UK Prime Minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham is pushing for a radical economic and housing strategy. The debate centers on restoring aid targets, reforming tax, and expanding social housing, while markets monitor mortgage pricing and fiscal discipline.
China has expanded 4.3% year on year in Q2, the slowest pace in over three years. Exports have helped but domestic consumption remains sluggish, with a trade surplus widening as global demand for AI-driven goods supports shipments. Analysts caution that sustained growth depends on domestic demand improving.
China's official manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50 to 49.2 in July, from 50.3 in June, signaling contraction. New orders and production show notable declines, with typhoon disruptions and soft domestic demand weighing on activity. Economists expect policy support to bolster growth in the coming months.