Independent macroeconomic research consultancy chaired by Roger Bootle
Leaders and economists have urged a Burnham government to pursue a bold, unified approach to development, housing, and public spending. Markets are pricing mortgage costs against signals from policy proposals, while economists press for sweeping tax reform and a council-housebuilding push.
Inflation has risen to 3.3% in March as fuel costs jump amid Middle East tensions. BoE is holding rates at 3.75% while weighing energy-price shocks and growth risks. NatWest reports first-quarter profit, while Santander completes TSB takeover; economists warn policy may tighten if energy shocks persist.
The UK has reported a lower-than-expected public sector deficit of £132 billion for the year to March, driven by higher tax receipts. However, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to increase borrowing costs and reduce fiscal space, threatening future economic stability.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% in the 12 months through May, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, driven largely by a surge in energy and gasoline costs. Core inflation has remained cooler at 2.9%, while producers’ prices and oil-driven wholesale gains have also accelerated ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.
The CPI has climbed 4.2% year over year in May, driven by energy costs amid the Iran conflict. Officials say inflation remains a pressure point for households while policy makers weigh rate moves; Trump has touted inflation as a sign the economy will improve after the conflict.
A tentative deal has reopened the Strait of Hormuz and allowed some vessels to leave the Persian Gulf, but global oil flows have not returned to normal. Producers and shipowners have cut output and delayed shipments; tankers stranded in the Gulf and shut-in fields will take weeks to months to restart full exports, keeping pressure on prices and inventories through summer.
China's official manufacturing PMI has edged into expansion at 50.3 in June from May's 50.0, with improvements in new orders and production. Export demand remains a key engine, while domestic consumption shows caution amid a prolonged property downturn. Analysts expect policy support to sustain momentum.