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UK GDP and services activity have shown resilience in July, with PMI data suggesting expansion amid domestic tourism, World Cup effects, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Analysts expect growth to lift Q2 GDP, while uncertainty persists around inflation and policy.
Official data show the UK unemployment rate has risen to 5% in the three months to March, with pay growth slowing to 3.4% and a sharp 100,000 fall in payroll employees in April. Vacancies have dropped to a five-year low as firms in retail and hospitality curb hiring amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Iran war and rising energy costs.
China's official manufacturing PMI has edged into expansion at 50.3 in June from May's 50.0, with improvements in new orders and production. Export demand remains a key engine, while domestic consumption shows caution amid a prolonged property downturn. Analysts expect policy support to sustain momentum.
EY and Scottish authorities report Scotland as the UK’s top destination for foreign direct investment outside London for the 11th year in a row, despite a dip in total projects in 2025. Edinburgh leads cities for FDI, with strong talent, infrastructure and sector strengths underpinning investor confidence amid a slower global environment.
The ONS has shown wage growth in the private sector has slipped below 3% for the first time since 2020, with three-month vacancies dropping to 712,000. Unemployment remains at 4.9%, payroll numbers fall slightly, and market signals suggest softening conditions ahead as pay growth in the public sector keeps overall earnings above inflation.
Consumer confidence has improved in July as heatwaves, football success, and the new prime minister boosted mood. However, overall sentiment remains negative, with the GfK index at -17, and gains rely on government delivery to tackle cost‑of‑living pressures.