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S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI for Britain has fallen from the flash reading but remains above 50, signaling expansion in July. Output growth is the strongest since September 2024, while input costs have cooled. The data covers July 9-28 and follows a US-Iran truce breakdown and a Yemeni naval blockade that pushed oil above $100.
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, led by nonstore retailers and motor-vehicles, easing momentum for second-half growth. Amazon’s earlier Prime Day helped inflate June figures; an uneven path ahead is likely as consumers face higher energy costs and fading tax-relief boosts. Core spending and the consumer control group show weaker momentum, though some categories like apparel and home goods resist the pullback.
Inflation has moved to a five‑month high of 3.1% as fuel prices and airfares climb, driven by Middle East conflict. The government has announced relief measures while stressing fiscal prudence. The Budget is six weeks away, and markets face higher borrowing costs amid a fragile headroom.
UK consumer confidence has improved to a two-year high, led by expectations of better personal finances and economy, but economists warn that inflation and energy costs could erode gains. Separate data show rising unsecured lending and a two-year high in consumer sentiment, while mortgage approvals remain subdued and borrowing costs are a concern for households.