American financial information company
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that payrolls have risen by 57,000 in June, well below forecasts, while the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2% because the labor force has shrunk. Household employment has fallen and the participation rate has hit its lowest level since March 2021, prompting downward revisions to April and May employment.
Houthi forces have claimed missile, drone and cruise-missile strikes on two Saudi oil tankers, Encelia and Layla, in the Red Sea and have declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports. The attack has caused a fire aboard one tanker, forced several ships to turn back and driven marine insurance and oil prices higher while US strikes on Iranian targets continue.
Consumer confidence has improved in July as heatwaves, football success, and the new prime minister boosted mood. However, overall sentiment remains negative, with the GfK index at -17, and gains rely on government delivery to tackle cost‑of‑living pressures.
The UK construction PMI has improved in July, rising to 44.7 from 38.4, signalling a stabilisation after a sharp downturn in Q2 2026. Housebuilding declines eased to the slowest pace since October 2025, while civil engineering remains the weakest area. New orders fell at the slowest rate since September 2025. Employment fell for the 19th straight month but at the slowest pace since February.
A block of UK indicators shows services activity expanding and consumer confidence firming, while manufacturing remains modest. PMI readings point to continued growth in Q3, supported by tech investment and exports, though inflation and public finances remain a risk.
Inflation has moved to a five‑month high of 3.1% as fuel prices and airfares climb, driven by Middle East conflict. The government has announced relief measures while stressing fiscal prudence. The Budget is six weeks away, and markets face higher borrowing costs amid a fragile headroom.
UK consumer confidence has improved to a two-year high, led by expectations of better personal finances and economy, but economists warn that inflation and energy costs could erode gains. Separate data show rising unsecured lending and a two-year high in consumer sentiment, while mortgage approvals remain subdued and borrowing costs are a concern for households.