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US retail sales rose 0.6% in August, driven by affluent consumers, despite tariff pressures on autos and furniture. Meanwhile, US industrial production barely increased, reflecting ongoing manufacturing challenges and trade uncertainties. The data suggests uneven economic momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision today.
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Recent surveys indicate US consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest since April, driven by inflation, labor market concerns, and political uncertainty. Despite delayed official data, Americans report rising prices, especially in food and dining out, impacting spending and economic outlook. The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act ahead of its rate decision.
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The OECD projects modest global economic slowdown from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, citing trade tensions and tariffs. US growth is revised up to 2%, while China and Europe see steady or slightly improved forecasts. Inflation is expected to ease by 2027.