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The leadership race has intensified as Andy Burnham is seen as the frontrunner to become prime minister, with markets seeking stability. Economists warn that the next chancellor will shape bond markets and fiscal policy, while Burnham pledges to follow fiscal rules and reduce bills. The City remains anxious about potential changes in taxation and public spending.
Markets are stabilising after a stretch of high activity in tech options, with traders shifting focus as implied volatility cools. Small caps are leading potential next moves, while global equities reflect a policy-led, carry-friendly regime.
The US and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes this weekend and on Monday, reversing a recent interim ceasefire and re‑opening doubt over control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has declared the ceasefire "over," ordered further strikes and revoked a temporary oil waiver. Oil has jumped into the high $70s–$80s and global markets have fallen.
New prime minister has pledged to reduce the welfare bill and make some benefits conditional on work while warning that the NHS could collapse if social care is not fixed. He says there will be no early election and will defend Britain’s interests in dealings with the US, including Donald Trump.
The Bank of England has kept Bank Rate at 3.75% in a split MPC vote as rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions threaten inflation. Six members vote to hold, three call for a hike to 4%. Inflation is expected to rise later this year before easing toward the target.
July PMI data show the UK construction sector is stabilising after a downturn, with PMIs indicating slower contraction across all subsectors. Housebuilding led the improvement, while civil engineering remains the weakest link. New orders declined at the slowest pace since 2025, and input costs cooled.