Coastal Chinese prefecture-level city on the Shandong Peninsula
Fresh data show China’s May retail sales stalled while investment contracts widen, signaling a slowdown in domestic demand. Yet exports are proving resilient thanks to AI-related demand and renewables, and industrial output edges higher, painting a nuanced picture of a faltering domestic economy still buoyed by external demand.
Exports have accelerated in June and the first half of 2026, driven by AI and high-tech goods, while domestic spending and investment remain weak. IMF raises growth forecast to 4.6% for 2026, with 4.1% for 2027. Economists warn of an imbalanced growth model as state support and private investment channel into frontier tech.