What's happened
Ocean surface temperatures in June have hit record highs, surpassing 2023 and 2024, with six months of near-unprecedented warmth. Scientists warn El Niño could intensify heat and extreme weather this year and next.
What's behind the headline?
The new record aligns with a global warming narrative but also raises questions about attribution and regional impacts. The data from Copernicus ties into broader UN science warnings about a warming ocean system. The oncoming El Niño could amplify already warm baselines, likely increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and weather extremes. Look for how policymakers and communities adapt to cascading effects on rainfall, agriculture, and coastal infrastructure.
- What is changing: Ocean temperatures have reached unprecedented levels in June, with El Niño on the horizon, suggesting a hotter year ahead.
- Who benefits/detracts: Scientists emphasize forecasting capabilities, while coastal communities brace for more extreme events.
- Forecast: If El Niño strengthens, temperatures and associated hazards will rise further across continents and oceans.
How we got here
Copernicus Marine Service reports six months of sustained ocean warmth in 2026, with marine heatwaves affecting about 82% of global oceans. A potential El Niño onset could boost heat further, raising risks of weather extremes and accelerating sea-level rise.
Our analysis
Copernicus Marine Service statements, EU climate monitors, and related UN scientific assessments provide the basis for this synthesis. The Guardian and France 24 report on near-record June temperatures, with Copernicus officials warning of more records as El Niño arrives.
Go deeper
- How should cities adapt infrastructure for escalating marine heatwaves?
- What regional impacts are expected in the Mediterranean and North Atlantic as El Niño develops?
- Which countries are investing in early-warning systems for marine heatwaves?
More on these topics
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Copernicus Climate Change Service - European Union scientific programme
The Copernicus Climate Change Service is one of the six thematic services provided by the European Union's Copernicus Programme.
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Europe - Region in Europe
Central Europe is the region comprising the central part of Europe. Central Europe occupies continuous territories that are otherwise sometimes considered parts of Western Europe, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe.
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Australia - Country in Oceania
Australia, officially known as the Commonwealth of Australia, is a sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands.
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United Nations - Intergovernmental organization
The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations.
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Africa - Continent
Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.3 million km² including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area and 20% of its land area.