Hormuz traffic remains limited

What's happened

Commercial traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US–Iran memorandum, but volumes have stayed far below prewar levels. Ship trackers report partial recoveries, 'dark' sailings with transponders off, continued use of routes close to Iran and Oman, and large backlogs as insurers and shippers wait for demining and clear rules.

What's behind the headline?

The operational reality is not the diplomatic rhetoric

• Political deals have produced statements; shipping operators are reacting to physical risk. Mines and recent strikes have left the strait's central lane hazardous, so commercial traffic is using narrower coastal corridors and turning off AIS transponders to evade tracking. This will keep visible transit counts depressed.

Economic and insurance consequences

• Insurers are withholding normal cover until demining and sustained security are visible. That will keep costs higher for carriers and will continue to divert cargoes onto longer, costlier routes or delay shipments.

What will happen next

• Authorities will have to clear mines and publish precise, enforced transit procedures. If demining and reliable patrols begin, traffic will ramp up over weeks; if incidents continue, traffic will stay at fraction-of-normal levels and global energy markets will remain volatile.

Power and leverage

• Iran is using control over routing and corridor rules to retain bargaining power even while signing the memorandum. Coastal corridor requirements and mentions of management by Iran and Oman show Tehran is preserving leverage that will shape the next phase of negotiations.

Forecast

• Visible, fully insured traffic will return only after 4–8 weeks of uninterrupted safe transits and a clear, internationally accepted management mechanism. Until then, we will see sporadic, opaque movements and a large queue of vessels waiting to enter.

How we got here

War between the US and Iran began in late February after US–Israeli strikes on Iran. A 14-point memorandum signed mid-June has opened a 60-day window to reopen the strait toll-free, but mines, security attacks on commercial ships, and uncertainty over enforcement and routing have kept owners and insurers cautious.

Our analysis

The coverage varies between data-driven trackers and political reporting. Kpler data, cited by The New Arab and the New York Times, provides the clearest visible metrics: The New Arab reported only 38 and 22 commodity transits on Saturday and Sunday after an exchange of fire, and Kpler has said aggregate three-day totals have been the highest since early June but remain far below prewar daily averages. Jenny Gross in the New York Times Business notes 109 transits from Saturday through Monday and highlights a backlog of 500–600 ships recorded by the International Maritime Organization; she also points out that many ships run with transponders off, which reduces public counts. Windward and Lloyd's List, reported by CNBC, emphasise 'dark' sailings and Iranian-linked tankers continuing to move, with Windward noting only 12 transits on one Sunday. Al Jazeera has focused on on-the-ground constraints: it quotes analysts saying shipowners and insurers are waiting for sustained security and demining, and it highlights Iran's insistence that transits follow corridors close to its coast. Reuters and Bloomberg reported diplomatic reactions at the G7 and noted European caution about rapid reopening and the need for demining. Use Kpler and AIS trackers for visible transit numbers, and read Al Jazeera, CNBC and Reuters for the political and insurance context.

Go deeper

• How long will demining and insurance recoveries take?
• Who will lead any demining or international patrols for the strait?

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