Israel’s October 27 election drama

What's happened

With eleven days to go, Israel has entered a deadlocked election campaign. Polls have shown neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot is set to win a 61-seat majority. Campaign fights are focusing on security, accountability for the October 7 failures, whether to include Arab parties, and the prospect of a broad unity government backed by the US.

What's behind the headline?

What the polls hide

• Polls show a split Knesset but they understate coalition fragility. Neither bloc is reaching 61 seats, which means government formation will hinge on small parties, defections or conditional support from Arab-led factions.

Who has leverage

• Arab-led parties will be kingmakers if they pass the threshold; their 12-13 projected seats will decide the balance. Several leading opposition figures publicly rule out formal coalitions with Arab parties, which will force them to rely on narrow, unstable coalitions or outside support.

The Netanyahu contingency

• The US and some regional actors are reported to be pushing for a broad unity government that would exclude far-right ministers and allow Netanyahu to remain prime minister for a transition period. If true, that plan will increase pressure on opposition leaders to negotiate post‑vote deals rather than demand a decisive election verdict.

Security will determine outcomes

• Voters list October 7 and security as central. First-time voters skew right; many younger Israelis prioritise immediate safety over long-term social or economic policy. That dynamic will keep pressure on any incoming government to maintain hardline security policies.

Domestic politics will constrain diplomacy

• Even a post‑Netanyahu government led by Eisenkot, Bennett or others will preserve core security positions on Gaza, the West Bank and Iran. Tactical shifts in tone and diplomacy are likely, but strategic continuity will persist because the same national institutions and threat perceptions remain in place.

Forecast

• Expect protracted coalition talks after October 27. A fragile broad coalition including centrist and right-wing parties — or a transitional unity arrangement brokered with external encouragement — will form and will struggle to enact large policy shifts. International partners will press the next government to stabilise regional ties, but meaningful change on Palestinian issues will not occur quickly.

How we got here

Israel has been at war since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. The attack and years of conflict have reshaped politics, boosted security as the dominant voter issue and left the Knesset fragmented. Opposition leaders have formed a loose pact to avoid mutual attacks but disagree on Arab party cooperation and who will lead a post-election government.

Our analysis

Several outlets present consistent but differently shaded accounts. Israel Hayom, as reported by The New Arab, has published a report citing unnamed US and foreign officials that the Trump administration is backing a broad unity government that would keep Netanyahu as prime minister for up to two years before handing power to Gadi Eisenkot. The New Arab repeats Israel Hayom’s claim that Washington and regional capitals prefer a coalition without far‑right ministers and that US diplomacy has linked Saudi normalisation talks to such an Israeli configuration. Al Jazeera frames the election in regional and African relations terms, noting that Gaza and the war have fractured international support and that many African states are weighing commercial and security ties against public pressure — "Africa's heterogeneity means individual states have handled relations with Israel separately," an academic told Al Jazeera. The Times of Israel and Al Jazeera provide detailed domestic reporting on accountability for October 7: former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has filed a defamation suit alleging Netanyahu lied about warnings before the attack. Bar's filing says he informed the prime minister’s office and that Netanyahu's public accusations were designed to shift blame. The Times of Israel reproduces Bar’s timeline and Netanyahu’s rebuttal: Netanyahu asked, "How many lives could we have saved if only you had called in time?" The Guardian, The Japan Times and other papers focus on public mood and the electoral calculus: the Gaza war has pushed Israel into diplomatic isolation and hardened voter priorities around security. These accounts converge on three points: the vote is deadlocked; security and October 7 dominate voters’ choices; and coalition arithmetic will make small parties and Arab-led factions decisive. They diverge on emphasis: Israel Hayom/New Arab highlight reported foreign (including US) diplomatic engineering; Al Jazeera and The Guardian emphasise international fallout and continuity in Israeli strategy

Go deeper

• Which small parties are most likely to determine coalition maths after October 27?
• How would a unity government that sidelines far-right ministers affect Israel’s diplomacy with Saudi Arabia and the US?

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