New START Treaty Expires, Arms Race Fears

What's happened

On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty between the US and Russia expired, ending over 50 years of nuclear arms limits between the two powers. Russia offered a one-year extension, but the US declined, seeking a new treaty including China, which refuses to join. Both sides remain committed to restraint, but the absence of formal limits raises fears of a renewed nuclear arms race.

What's behind the headline?

Strategic Implications of New START's Expiry

The expiration of New START marks a pivotal shift in global nuclear arms control, removing the last formal constraints on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. Despite Russia's offer to extend the treaty and maintain caps, the US's insistence on including China—a nuclear power with a rapidly expanding arsenal but significantly smaller stockpile—has stalled negotiations. China's refusal to join complicates efforts to establish a multilateral framework.

Risks of a Renewed Arms Race

Without verification mechanisms and limits, both the US and Russia possess the capacity to rapidly increase deployed warheads, potentially doubling their arsenals by uploading reserve warheads to delivery systems. This uncertainty fuels worst-case assumptions, increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation. The absence of inspections and transparency undermines strategic stability and confidence.

Geopolitical Dynamics and Diplomatic Challenges

Russia's call to include US allies Britain and France in any new treaty reflects a push for broader multilateral arms control, but also complicates negotiations. The US's refusal to extend New START without a new, modernized agreement signals a desire to reset arms control on new terms, yet the lack of diplomatic progress leaves a vacuum.

Consequences for Global Security

The treaty's lapse coincides with heightened tensions due to the Ukraine conflict and China's nuclear expansion, raising fears of a destabilizing arms race. Allies question the reliability of US nuclear deterrence, with some exploring independent capabilities. The international community, including the UN Secretary-General, warns of increased nuclear risks.

Outlook

Absent swift diplomatic engagement, the world faces a more unpredictable nuclear landscape. While both Moscow and Washington profess responsible approaches, the lack of binding agreements and verification heightens risks. Future arms control efforts must reconcile divergent interests and include emerging nuclear powers to restore strategic stability.

How we got here

New START, signed in 2010 by Presidents Obama and Medvedev, capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 each for the US and Russia and allowed inspections. It was extended once in 2021 but expired in 2026 amid rising tensions, Russia suspending inspections in 2023, and US demands to include China in future talks.

Our analysis

The New York Times highlights the potential for a new arms race, noting President Trump's desire for an "improved and modernized" treaty and possible resumption of nuclear testing, with David E. Sanger emphasizing the reversal of decades of arms control. Al Jazeera and AP News report Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statement that Russia will respect New START limits as long as the US does, despite the treaty's expiration, underscoring Moscow's cautious stance. The Moscow Times and Reuters detail Russia's offer for a one-year extension and the US's insistence on including China, which Beijing rejects, complicating negotiations. Business Insider UK explains the practical implications of the treaty's lapse, including loss of transparency and the potential for rapid warhead uploads by both sides. The Independent and The New Arab provide context on the treaty's history and the geopolitical ramifications, including calls from the UN Secretary-General for renewed negotiations. France 24 captures international concern, quoting campaigners and officials warning of increased nuclear risks and the need for responsible action. These sources collectively illustrate a complex, evolving situation with significant global security implications.

Go deeper

• What are the risks of the New START treaty expiring?
• Why does the US want China included in a new arms control deal?
• How is Russia responding to the treaty's expiration?

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