What's happened
Nolo is tracking south of Hawaii’s Big Island with winds over 100 mph. Forecasters warn of potential catastrophic flooding and mudslides as rains could reach up to 20 inches on the Big Island and other islands. Emergency declarations are in place as preparations shift into high gear.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
- Nolo’s trajectory keeps it on a path that could bring its core near or south of Hawaii, raising the risk of coastal flooding and power outages.
- The storm’s rapid intensification risk requires sustained preparation across the islands, including shelters and power restoration plans.
- The situation mirrors previous events (Lala) but with higher rainfall forecasts, potentially complicating evacuation and relief efforts.
- Authorities are coordinating with federal aid programs; this is likely to shape response timelines and funding allocations ahead of landfall.
- Readers should stay updated with official advisories as the forecast cone evolves, and prepare emergency kits in case conditions worsen.
How we got here
Nolo’s approach follows a season of above-average tropical activity in the Pacific, linked to El Niño conditions. Hawaii has faced prior storms like Lala, which caused extensive damage. Authorities have activated hundreds of National Guard members and coordinated aid from FEMA to bolster response efforts.
Our analysis
The Guardian (Sept 27-28, 2026) quotes NHC director Michael Brennan on flooding and wind risks; reports note emergency declarations by President Trump and FEMA coordination, alongside relief efforts by CORE and local utilities. CNBC (Sept 26-27, 2026) and The Guardian provide parallel timelines and emphasize same risk factors and local preparedness measures. The Guardian’s reporting also highlights Polo developing near Baja California Peninsula.
Go deeper
- What changes have authorities made to evacuation plans since the latest forecast?
- How might rainfall totals affect road access and shelter capacity across the islands?
- What support is expected from FEMA and the federal government in the next 24–48 hours?
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