US Eyes Cuba Amid Energy Crisis

What's happened

As of March 21, 2026, Cuba faces a severe energy crisis worsened by a US oil embargo following the January abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Cuba's main oil supplier. President Trump has publicly threatened a "friendly takeover" of Cuba, while bilateral talks continue amid widespread blackouts and economic hardship affecting 10 million Cubans.

What's behind the headline?

US Strategic Pressure on Cuba

The US administration, led by President Trump, is intensifying efforts to destabilize Cuba through economic sanctions and military threats, leveraging the island's dependence on Venezuelan oil. Trump's open talk of "taking" Cuba signals a shift toward overt interventionism, diverging from previous covert or diplomatic approaches.

Energy Crisis as a Catalyst

The collapse of Cuba's power grid, highlighted by the shutdown of the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant, underscores the fragility of Cuba's infrastructure. The US embargo on oil imports, combined with Venezuela's halted shipments, has pushed Cuba into a humanitarian crisis marked by widespread blackouts and shortages.

Political Dynamics and Regional Implications

Cuban-American lawmakers, including Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and Sen. Ted Cruz, are debating options ranging from US territorial acquisition to democratic reforms. However, Cuba's government firmly rejects interference, emphasizing sovereignty. The expulsion of Cuban diplomats from Ecuador, a US ally, reflects the broader regional tensions.

Forecast and Consequences

The US strategy will likely deepen Cuba's economic woes, potentially provoking social unrest and political instability. While a US takeover remains legally and logistically complex, increased pressure may force Cuba toward reforms or closer ties with the US. The humanitarian impact will intensify unless alternative energy solutions or diplomatic breakthroughs emerge.

Reader Impact

For readers, this story highlights the geopolitical contest in the Americas and the human cost of sanctions and political brinkmanship. It underscores how energy dependencies can become leverage points in international relations, with direct consequences for millions of civilians.

How we got here

Cuba's energy crisis stems from an aging electric grid and a US-imposed oil embargo after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. Venezuela, Cuba's primary oil supplier, halted shipments, triggering fuel shortages and prolonged blackouts. The US has increased pressure on Cuba, seeking regime change and cutting off oil imports, exacerbating Cuba's economic and humanitarian challenges.

Our analysis

The New York Post reports that some US lawmakers, including Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, are seriously considering making Cuba a US territory, citing President Trump's comments about "taking" Cuba as a catalyst. Malliotakis acknowledges the island's dilapidated infrastructure and the need for a clear plan to upgrade it. Meanwhile, SBS highlights the worsening humanitarian crisis, noting that around 10 million Cubans endured a 29-hour blackout amid the US oil embargo. SBS also frames Trump's approach as overtly interventionist, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushing for new leadership in Cuba. The Times of Israel provides insight into ongoing bilateral talks, revealing that removing Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel is a key US objective, though Cuba insists on sovereignty and rejects interference. Al Jazeera details the nationwide blackout caused by a boiler leak at the Antonio Guiteras plant and the broader economic strain from the US embargo and Venezuela's halted oil shipments. It also reports on Cuba's diplomatic tensions with Ecuador, linked to US pressure. These sources collectively illustrate a multifaceted crisis: a deteriorating energy infrastructure exacerbated by geopolitical maneuvers, US ambitions for regime change, and Cuba's resistance. The New York Post and SBS emphasize US political ambitions and interventionist rhetoric, while Al Jazeera and The Times of Israel focus on the humanitarian and diplomatic complexities. Together, they provide a comprehensive view of a crisis with deep regional and global implications.

Go deeper

• What are the prospects for US intervention in Cuba?
• How is the energy crisis affecting everyday life in Cuba?
• What role does Venezuela play in Cuba's current situation?

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