Paraguay reaffirms ties with Taiwan

What's happened

Paraguay's president Santiago Peña has visited Taiwan and has reaffirmed diplomatic support, signing cooperation agreements and praising shared democratic values. China has urged Paraguay to sever ties, saying most Paraguayans favour establishing relations with Beijing, and has criticised Paraguayan officials who visit Taipei.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening

• Paraguay's president Santiago Peña has travelled to Taiwan, received honours and presided over the signing of bilateral agreements, underscoring a public reaffirmation of the two countries' relationship.
• Beijing is escalating pressure on Paraguay by publicly urging it to "stand on the right side of history" and by claiming polls show overwhelming Paraguayan support for ties with China.

What's driving this now

• China is increasing diplomatic and economic engagement in Latin America to reduce Taiwan's international space. This is producing tangible choices for Paraguay: maintain symbolic, values-based ties with Taiwan or pursue immediate economic advantages via relations with Beijing.

Stakes and likely consequences

• Paraguay is balancing domestic economic grievances — exporters face indirect access to China — against political signalling to the United States and Taiwan. Peña's visit will increase short-term political cost for Paraguayan opponents who argue ties bring limited economic benefit.
• China will intensify outreach to Paraguayan political and business elites and will offer incentives that will test Peña's domestic support. This will lead to continued diplomatic friction and public debate in Paraguay.

Forecast

• Paraguay will face sustained pressure from Beijing and growing domestic debate; at least one or two Paraguayan parties or business groups will shift rhetoric toward pragmatic engagement with China within months.
• Taiwan will continue to deepen targeted cooperation (trade, technology, the AI MoU signed) to strengthen the relationship, but this will not match the scale of incentives Beijing can offer, leaving Paraguay's position contested.

What readers should watch

• Visits of Paraguayan lawmakers or business delegations to China, new Chinese investment pledges to Paraguay, and any official polls or statements from Paraguay's government showing shifts in public opinion.

How we got here

Paraguay is one of 12 states that still maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and is Taiwan's last ally in South America. China has been intensifying diplomatic outreach and economic pressure to persuade countries to switch recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

Our analysis

Reuters reporting (Ben Blanchard, Fabian Hamacher, Ann Wang and others) has been emphasising the diplomatic choreography: Peña has received honours in Taipei, "reiterated his commitment" and led a senior delegation to sign cooperation agreements, Reuters noted on May 8 and again on May 12. Reuters also reported Beijing's stronger rhetoric: a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, said Paraguay opinion "polls showed more than 90%" support for establishing ties with Beijing and accused Paraguayan visitors of "brazenly" supporting Taiwan (Reuters, May 12). The Independent (May 8) provided more on the substance of Peña's remarks and the agreements: Peña has publicly praised shared values of "democracy, freedom and human rights" and presided over a memorandum of understanding on an AI computing centre. The Independent also highlighted regional context, noting Honduras' switch to Beijing in 2023 and the U.S. interest in reducing Chinese influence in Latin America. Taken together, the sources show two distinct narratives: Taipei and Paraguay are stressing ideological and concrete cooperation gains (agreements, diplomatic ceremonies), while Beijing is using public pressure and claimed poll figures to argue popular support in Paraguay for switching recognition. Reuters presents both the Paraguayan and Chinese statements, including Guo's direct quotation that critics are "wallowing in the mire with the Taiwan authorities"; The Independent supplies direct quotes from Peña and Lai about values and the AI MoU. Both outlets attribute the Chinese complaint that recognition choices are tied to the "one-China principle."

Go deeper

• Will Paraguay announce any new trade or investment deals with China following Peña's visit?
• How will Paraguayan domestic opinion and lawmakers respond to Beijing's claim of '90% support' for switching recognition?
• What concrete projects will follow the AI computing centre memorandum between Taiwan and Paraguay?

More on these topics

• Lai Ching-te - Vice President of the Republic of China

  William Lai Ching-te is a Taiwanese politician who has been the Vice President of the Republic of China since 2020. He served as a legislator in the Legislative Yuan from 1999 to 2010, and as Mayor of Tainan from 2010 to 2017, prior to taking office as pr

• Taiwan

  Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. Neighbouring countries include the People's Republic of China to the northwest, Japan to the northeast, and the Philippines to the south.

• Eswatini - Country in Southern Africa

  Eswatini, officially the Kingdom of Eswatini, sometimes written in English as eSwatini, and formerly and still commonly known in English as Swaziland, is a landlocked country in Southern Africa.

• People's Republic of China - Country in East Asia

  China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of around 1.4 billion in 2019.

• Mauritius - Country in East Africa

  Mauritius, officially the Republic of Mauritius, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean about 2,000 kilometres off the south-east coast of the African continent. It includes the eponymous main island of Mauritius and Rodrigues, Agaléga and St. Brandon.

• Madagascar - Country in East Africa

  Madagascar, officially the Republic of Madagascar, and previously known as the Malagasy Republic, is an island country in the Indian Ocean, approximately 400 kilometres off the coast of East Africa.

• Seychelles - Country in East Africa

  Seychelles, officially the Republic of Seychelles, is an archipelagic island country in the Indian Ocean at the eastern edge of the Somali Sea. The country consists of 115 islands. Its capital and largest city, Victoria, lies 1,500 kilometres east of main

• Paraguay - Country in South America

  Paraguay, officially the Republic of Paraguay, is a country in South America. It is bordered by Argentina to the south and southwest, Brazil to the east and northeast, and Bolivia to the northwest.

• Beijing - Capital of China

  Beijing, alternatively romanized as Peking, is the capital of the People's Republic of China. It is the world's most populous capital city, with over 21 million residents within an administrative area of 16,410.5 km².

• Xi Jinping - General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

  Xi Jinping is a Chinese politician serving as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, president of the People's Republic of China, and chairman of the Central Military Commission.

• Mswati III - Ngwenyama of Eswatini

  Mswati III is the king of Eswatini and head of the Swazi Royal Family. He was born in Manzini in the Protectorate of Swaziland to King Sobhuza II and one of his younger wives, Ntfombi Tfwala.

• Donald Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President

  Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.

• Santiago Peña Palacios - Former Minister of Finance of Paraguay

  Santiago Peña Palacios is a a Paraguayan politician and economist who is the president-elect of Paraguay following the 2023 general election, in which he won in a electoral landslide.