What's happened
On September 29-30, 2025, US President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point peace plan to end the nearly two-year Gaza war. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accepted the plan after securing last-minute changes favoring Israel's security and phased withdrawal. The plan demands Hamas disarmament, hostage release within 72 hours, and excludes Hamas from Gaza's governance. Arab and Muslim states largely support it, but Hamas and some Palestinians remain skeptical, fearing prolonged Israeli presence and loss of control.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Shifts and Regional Dynamics
The Trump peace plan represents a significant diplomatic push to end a protracted and devastating conflict. Netanyahu's acceptance, after securing key amendments, notably on the phased Israeli withdrawal and stringent Hamas disarmament, underscores Israel's priority on security and control over Gaza's future. The plan's exclusion of Hamas from governance and the establishment of an international stabilization force signal a fundamental reshaping of Gaza's political landscape.
Qatar's Enhanced Role
Qatar emerges as a pivotal mediator, having hosted Hamas's political bureau and now wielding increased influence in Washington and Arab capitals. Netanyahu's unprecedented apology to Qatar for Israeli strikes in Doha reflects a strategic recalibration, acknowledging Qatar's indispensable role in negotiations.
Hamas's Dilemma and Regional Pressure
Hamas faces intense pressure from Arab mediators Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to accept the plan, yet internal skepticism persists. Hamas leaders view the plan as a threat to their existence and are reluctant to disarm or relinquish governance. Palestinian factions and civilians express fears over indefinite Israeli military presence and loss of self-determination.
International Support and Criticism
The plan has garnered backing from Arab states, the EU, and global leaders like Putin and Blair, emphasizing hostage release and conflict cessation. Conversely, Palestinian Authority factions and some Palestinians criticize it as biased towards Israel, calling for broader considerations like Gaza's reconstruction and West Bank annexation halting.
Forecast and Implications
If Hamas rejects the plan, Israel, backed by the US, signals readiness to continue military operations. The plan's success hinges on Hamas's response and the ability of mediators to bridge gaps. The proposed transitional governance and international force could stabilize Gaza but risk deepening Palestinian political fractures. The humanitarian crisis persists, underscoring urgency but complicating negotiations.
This plan will likely redefine Gaza's political and security framework, with regional power plays and international diplomacy shaping its trajectory. The coming days are critical for either a breakthrough or escalation.
What the papers say
The Times of Israel provides detailed insights into Netanyahu's negotiations with Trump, highlighting last-minute changes that favor Israel's security interests, including a phased withdrawal and strict disarmament terms for Hamas. It also emphasizes Qatar's rising influence, noting Netanyahu's rare apology to Qatar's prime minister, signaling Doha's pivotal mediation role. The New Arab captures the skepticism within Gaza and among Palestinian factions, quoting Hamas negotiators who view the plan as skewed towards Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad's warnings of regional destabilization. It also reports on the humanitarian toll and political divisions within Israel, with far-right ministers opposing the plan. South China Morning Post offers personal perspectives from Gaza residents, reflecting despair and cautious hope amid ongoing violence and skepticism about ceasefire prospects. Gulf News and The New Arab outline the international diplomatic context, detailing broad Arab and Muslim support for the plan while noting calls for additional provisions like halting West Bank annexation. These sources collectively illustrate a complex diplomatic effort marked by regional power dynamics, humanitarian urgency, and deep political divides, providing readers with a nuanced understanding of the peace plan's challenges and prospects.
How we got here
The Gaza conflict began with Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, leading to a devastating Israeli military response. After nearly two years of war and failed ceasefire attempts, the US proposed a comprehensive peace plan involving ceasefire, hostages' release, Hamas disarmament, and phased Israeli withdrawal, supported by regional Arab and Muslim countries but contested by Hamas and some Palestinians.
Go deeper
- What are the main points of Trump's Gaza peace plan?
- How has Hamas responded to the US peace proposal?
- What role is Qatar playing in mediating the Gaza conflict?
Common question
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Why Are US and Israel Tensions Rising Over the Qatar Strike?
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What Are the Broader Implications of the Qatar Strike for Regional Stability?
Recent Israeli strikes in Doha targeting Hamas leaders have significantly impacted regional stability in the Middle East. While Israel claims the operation was an independent decision, the fallout has raised concerns about escalating tensions among neighboring countries and international powers. This page explores the potential consequences of this incident, how regional players are reacting, and what it could mean for future peace efforts in the region.
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Why Did Israel Target Hamas Leaders in Doha?
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How Do Recent Middle East Events Impact Regional Security and Diplomacy?
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Hamas is a Palestinian Sunni-Islamic fundamentalist militant organization. It has a social service wing, Dawah, and a military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
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