What's happened
Hurricane Melissa intensified rapidly to Category 5, with winds over 157 mph, threatening Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Climate change-driven warm oceans fueled this rapid intensification, which has already caused fatalities and severe flooding in the Caribbean. The storm is expected to make landfall soon.
What's behind the headline?
The extraordinary rapid intensification of Melissa underscores the influence of climate change on hurricane behavior. The storm's ability to turbocharge over warm waters, despite passing over mountainous islands, defies typical storm weakening mechanisms like cold water upwelling. This pattern indicates that warming oceans are not only increasing storm intensity but also their unpredictability.
The fact that Melissa has tied records for wind speed and pressure at landfall highlights a shift in hurricane severity, with more storms reaching extreme categories. The persistent warmth of the Atlantic, especially in deeper layers, acts as a fuel source, making rapid intensification more likely.
This trend poses significant risks for coastal communities, especially in island nations where infrastructure is vulnerable. The increased frequency of such storms will demand greater investment in early warning systems and resilient infrastructure. Climate scientists warn that without substantial emission reductions, these phenomena will become more common, further exacerbating the damage and loss of life.
What the papers say
The Independent reports that Melissa's rapid intensification is unprecedented, with scientists noting the storm turbocharged by about 70 mph in 24 hours and reaching 175 mph. They highlight the unusual lack of eyewall replacement cycles, which typically weaken storms. The article emphasizes the role of warm water and climate change in fueling this intensification.
AP News adds that the warming oceans, driven by greenhouse gases, are making such explosive storm development more frequent. It cites a 2023 study showing that storms now more than twice as likely to undergo rapid intensification compared to previous decades. Both sources agree that climate change is amplifying hurricane severity and risks, especially near coastlines, and stress the importance of investing in resilience measures.
How we got here
Melissa's rapid intensification is linked to unusually warm Atlantic waters, driven by climate change. The Atlantic has experienced higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures, providing abundant energy for storms. This year has seen multiple storms undergo swift strengthening, a trend associated with global warming effects on ocean temperatures.
Go deeper
- How does climate change influence hurricane strength?
- What measures are being taken to protect Caribbean islands?
- Will this trend continue in future hurricane seasons?
More on these topics
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Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Spanning 10,990 square kilometres in area, it is the third-largest island of the Greater Antilles and the Caribbean.
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Climate Central is a nonprofit news organization that analyzes and reports on climate science. Composed of scientists and science journalists, the organization conducts scientific research on climate change and energy issues, and produces multimedia conte
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Cuba, officially the Republic of Cuba, is a country comprising the island of Cuba as well as Isla de la Juventud and several minor archipelagos. Cuba is located in the northern Caribbean where the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean meet.
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The Dominican Republic is a country located on the island of Hispaniola in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean region.