Gulf War Disrupts Global Energy Supply

What's happened

Since late February 2026, the US-Israel war on Iran has severely damaged Persian Gulf energy infrastructure, including Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG terminal. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil and gas facilities have caused the largest global oil supply disruption ever, pushing prices above $100 a barrel and threatening long-term economic impacts worldwide.

What's behind the headline?

Long-Term Economic Impact

The war has shifted from temporary transit disruptions to sustained attacks on critical energy infrastructure, notably Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex, which supplies 20% of global liquefied natural gas. Damage to such facilities will take years to repair, ensuring prolonged supply shortages.

Global Energy Market Shock

Oil prices have surged from around $70 to over $105 per barrel, with spikes reaching nearly $120 during peak conflict moments. This shock dwarfs previous crises, including the 1970s oil embargo, and risks triggering stagflation—simultaneous inflation and economic stagnation—globally.

Fertilizer and Food Security Risks

The Persian Gulf region's dominance in nitrogen fertilizer exports, reliant on low-cost natural gas, is compromised. Blockades and strikes have raised urea prices by 50%, threatening agricultural yields and food affordability, especially in import-dependent countries like Brazil and Egypt.

Broader Industrial Disruptions

Helium supplies, essential for chipmaking and medical imaging, are also disrupted due to damage at Qatar's facilities. The cascading effects extend beyond energy to critical industrial inputs, amplifying global economic vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical and Market Uncertainty

With Iran maintaining its blockade and missile capabilities, and the US considering military options to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict risks further escalation. Energy markets remain volatile, and emergency oil releases by the IEA provide only temporary relief.

Forecast

The war will likely prolong elevated energy prices and supply constraints for years, pressuring global inflation and growth. Consumers worldwide will face higher fuel and food costs, while governments may impose conservation measures. The conflict underscores the fragility of global energy supply chains and the geopolitical risks embedded within them.

How we got here

The conflict began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliations targeting Gulf energy facilities. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for 20% of the world's oil, has been effectively closed by Iran, disrupting exports and escalating energy market instability.

Our analysis

The Times of Israel and The Independent both highlight the extensive damage to Persian Gulf energy infrastructure, with MIT economist Christopher Knittel noting the shift from short-term disruption to long-term ramifications. The Times of Israel emphasizes the scale of the oil supply shock, quoting the International Energy Agency calling it the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The Independent adds detail on fertilizer price surges and the impact on food security, citing Alpine Macro's Kelly Xu. Al Jazeera reports on the specific damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG terminal, quoting CEO Saad al-Kaabi on the multi-year repair timeline and $20 billion revenue loss. The New York Post covers the International Energy Agency's warnings about prolonged high oil prices and the historic release of 400 million barrels from reserves, with Executive Director Fatih Birol describing the situation as "Armageddon." The New York Times provides context on the escalation of attacks, including Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field and Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf facilities, highlighting the strategic importance of these sites. Arab News details the broader economic consequences, including soaring fuel prices, government conservation measures worldwide, and the political challenges faced by US President Donald Trump. Sky News offers insight into Iran's stance through an interview with a senior diplomat, emphasizing Iran's refusal to exercise restraint under attack and the potential for prolonged conflict. This perspective contrasts with US and Israeli efforts to contain the situation, underscoring the geopolitical complexity. Together, these sources paint a comprehensive picture of a conflict that has moved beyond immediate military engagements to a sustained disruption of global energy supplies with far-reaching economic and geopolitical consequences.

Go deeper

• How will the energy supply disruptions affect global oil prices in the coming months?
• What are the long-term economic consequences of damage to Qatar's LNG facilities?
• How is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacting fertilizer and food prices worldwide?

More on these topics

• Iran - Country in the Middle East

  Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a

• Qatar - Country in the Middle East

  Qatar, officially the State of Qatar, is a country located in Western Asia, occupying the small Qatar Peninsula on the northeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula.

• Israel - Country in the Middle East

  Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.

• United States - Country in North America

  The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.

• Fatih Birol - Executive Director of the International Energy Agency

  Fatih Birol is a Turkish economist and energy expert, who has been the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency since 1 September 2015. He previously served as the Chief Economist and Director of Global Energy Economics at the IEA in Paris.

• Strait of Hormuz - Strait

  The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.

• Benjamin Netanyahu - Prime Minister of Israel

  Benjamin Netanyahu is an Israeli politician serving as Prime Minister of Israel since 2009, and previously from 1996 to 1999. Netanyahu is also the Chairman of the Likud – National Liberal Movement.

• Kuwait - Country in the Middle East

  Kuwait, officially the State of Kuwait, is a country in Western Asia. Situated in the northern edge of Eastern Arabia at the tip of the Persian Gulf, it borders Iraq to the north and Saudi Arabia to the south.

• Saudi Arabia - Country in the Middle East

  Saudi Arabia, officially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a country in Western Asia constituting the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula.

• Qatar Petroleum - Company

  Qatar Petroleum is a state owned petroleum company of Qatar. The company operates all oil and gas activities in Qatar, including exploration, production, refining, transport, and storage.

• Gita Gopinath - American economist

  Gita Gopinath is an Indian American economist who has been the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund since 2019. In that role she is the Director of IMF's Research Department and the Economic Counsellor of the Fund.