What's happened
Since the October 2025 US-brokered ceasefire, Gaza remains volatile with over 570 Palestinians killed amid ongoing Israeli strikes and militant attacks. A US-led peace plan aims to demilitarize Hamas and establish technocratic governance, but progress stalls as Israel restricts Gaza access and Hamas resists disarmament. The Rafah crossing partially reopened, yet reconstruction and security remain unresolved.
What's behind the headline?
Persistent Fragility of the Gaza Ceasefire
The ceasefire in Gaza, while halting large-scale combat, has failed to end violence or political stalemate. Israeli strikes continue in response to militant attacks, causing hundreds of Palestinian deaths since October 2025. Hamas remains a dominant force, refusing to disarm, complicating peace efforts.
The US-Led Peace Plan's Challenges
The 20-point plan's second phase, involving demilitarization and technocratic governance, faces Israeli obstruction and Hamas resistance. Israel controls over half of Gaza, restricting movement and aid, undermining reconstruction efforts. The newly formed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) lacks real authority and access, hampering governance transition.
Regional and International Dynamics
The involvement of the UAE, backing proxy groups and influencing Gaza's future, adds complexity. International actors like Indonesia prepare peacekeeping forces, but their mandates remain unclear. Western and Arab nations condemn Israeli West Bank policies, fearing erosion of a two-state solution.
Forecast and Implications
Without Hamas disarmament and Israeli cooperation, the ceasefire risks collapse. Israel's military prepares for renewed offensives, signaling potential escalation. The humanitarian situation deteriorates amid aid restrictions and infrastructure damage. The international community's role is pivotal but constrained by conflicting interests.
Impact on Readers
The ongoing conflict affects regional stability and global diplomacy. For readers, understanding these dynamics clarifies the challenges of peace in Gaza and the broader Middle East, highlighting the urgent need for effective mediation and humanitarian relief.
How we got here
The October 2025 ceasefire, brokered by the US under President Trump, followed two years of war triggered by Hamas's 2023 attack on Israel. It included a 20-point plan calling for Hamas disarmament, Israeli troop withdrawal, and Gaza reconstruction under international oversight. Despite initial progress like hostage releases and border reopening, violence and political deadlock persist.
Our analysis
The New York Times reveals a US-led peace plan involving Jared Kushner and Nickolay Mladenov aiming to demilitarize Hamas, though Hamas leadership resists disarmament talks, with Khalil al-Hayya refusing to discuss it directly (NYT, Feb 17). The Independent highlights ongoing violence despite the ceasefire, noting over 590 Palestinian deaths and Israeli strikes responding to militant attacks, while the National Committee for Gaza's governance remains sidelined and unable to enter Gaza (The Independent, Feb 13). The New Arab reports Israeli obstruction of Gaza's technocratic committee, with Israel controlling key areas and preparing for possible renewed military operations, while the UAE's influence complicates governance and security (The New Arab, Feb 10). AP News and France 24 document continued deadly Israeli strikes disrupting the ceasefire, with hospitals overwhelmed and humanitarian aid insufficient, despite partial reopening of the Rafah crossing and international peacekeeping preparations, including Indonesia's troop training (AP News, Feb 10; France 24, Jan 31). These sources collectively illustrate a fragile ceasefire undermined by violence, political deadlock, and competing regional interests, underscoring the complexity of achieving lasting peace in Gaza.
Go deeper
- What are the main obstacles to Hamas disarmament?
- How is the international community involved in Gaza's reconstruction?
- What impact do Israeli strikes have on the ceasefire's stability?
More on these topics
-
Hamas
Hamas is a Palestinian Sunni-Islamic fundamentalist militant organization. It has a social service wing, Dawah, and a military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
-
Gaza Strip
The Gaza Strip, or simply Gaza, is a self-governing Palestinian territory on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, that borders Egypt on the southwest for 11 kilometers and Israel on the east and north along a 51 km border.
-
Israel - Country in the Middle East
Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.
-
Israel Defense Forces - Defense force
The Israel Defense Forces, commonly known in Israel by the Hebrew acronym Tzahal, are the military forces of the State of Israel. They consist of the ground forces, air force, and navy. It is the sole military wing of the Israeli security forces, and has
-
Donald Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.
-
Palestinians - People
The Palestinian people, also referred to as Palestinians or Palestinian Arabs, are an ethnonational group comprising the modern descendants of the peoples who have lived in Palestine continuously over the centuries and who today are largely culturally and
-
Benjamin Netanyahu - Prime Minister of Israel
Benjamin Netanyahu is an Israeli politician serving as Prime Minister of Israel since 2009, and previously from 1996 to 1999. Netanyahu is also the Chairman of the Likud – National Liberal Movement.
-
United Nations - Intergovernmental organization
The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations.
-
United States - Country in North America
The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.
-
Nikolai Mladenov - Bulgarian Politician
Nickolai Evtimov Mladenov is a Bulgarian politician and diplomat who served as the minister of foreign affairs in the government of then prime minister Boyko Borisov from 2010 to 2013.
-
Egypt - Country
Egypt, officially the Arab Republic of Egypt, is a transcontinental country spanning the northeast corner of Africa and southwest corner of Asia by a land bridge formed by the Sinai Peninsula.
-
Prabowo Subianto - Defense Minister of Indonesia
Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo is an Indonesian politician, businessman and former Army lieutenant General who is the currently-appointed Minister of Defence of the Republic of Indonesia.
-
Indonesia - Country in Asia
Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia, is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania, between the Indian and Pacific oceans. It consists of more than seventeen thousand islands, including Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Sulawesi, and New Guinea. Indonesia i
-
Gaza Health Ministry - Agency in the Gaza Strip under the jurisdiction of the territory's Hamas government
The Gaza Health Ministry (GHM), officially the Palestinian Ministry of Health – Gaza, is responsible for managing healthcare and medical services in the Gaza Strip. The health ministry's casualty reports have received significant attention during the course of the Gaza–Israel conflict. Its numbers have historically been considered reliable by the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and Human Rights Watch. In relation to the Gaza war, two letters published in The Lancet journal did not find evidence of inflation or fabrication of Palestinian casualty numbers. A peer-reviewed analysis published by The Lancet in January 2025 concluded the GHM had undercounted deaths due to traumatic injury by 41% in its reports on the Gaza war, with the total estimated traumatic injury deaths as of October 2024 probably exceeding 70,000 as opposed to the GHM's reported 41,909—59.1% of them being women and children and the elderly. Another independent peer-reviewed analysis of casualties was published in The Lancet by Michael Spagat and other researchers. They estimated 75,200 violent deaths and 8,540 excess non-violent deaths between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025. The estimate of violent...
-
Gaza - Wikimedia disambiguation page
Gaza most commonly refers to: Gaza Strip, a Palestinian territory on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea Gaza City, a city in the Gaza Strip Gaza may also refer to: