What's happened
On December 9, 2025, Lithuania declared a state of emergency due to repeated incursions of weather balloons and drones from Belarus, which have disrupted Vilnius airport operations and civil aviation. Lithuania accuses Belarus of orchestrating a hybrid attack involving smuggling contraband cigarettes and destabilizing national security. The emergency grants military powers to coordinate with law enforcement to counter these threats.
What's behind the headline?
Hybrid Warfare and Regional Security
Lithuania's declaration of a state of emergency highlights the evolving nature of hybrid warfare, where non-traditional tactics such as smuggling via balloons and drone incursions are used to destabilize a neighboring country without open conflict. This campaign, attributed to Belarus, aims to disrupt Lithuania's economy and civil infrastructure, particularly aviation.
Strategic Implications
Belarus's actions serve multiple strategic purposes: undermining Lithuania's security, testing NATO and EU responses, and signaling defiance amid broader geopolitical tensions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Lithuania's move to grant military powers for coordinated responses reflects the seriousness of the threat and the need for rapid, integrated defense mechanisms.
Broader European Context
Similar airspace violations and hybrid tactics have been reported in other European countries, indicating a pattern of low-intensity conflict aimed at sowing instability. Lithuania's situation exemplifies the challenges NATO and the EU face in countering such asymmetric threats.
Forecast and Consequences
Lithuania will likely enhance border controls, invest in advanced detection and interception technologies, and adjust civil aviation operations, including possible flight schedule changes. The situation may escalate diplomatic tensions with Belarus and Russia, potentially prompting new EU sanctions. The hybrid attack approach will continue to test European resilience and coordination.
Impact on Civilians and Economy
Repeated airport closures have stranded thousands of passengers and caused financial losses exceeding €750,000. While authorities aim to minimize inconvenience, the ongoing disruptions affect businesses and public confidence in security.
Overall, Lithuania's response sets a precedent for addressing hybrid threats that blur the lines between criminal smuggling and state-sponsored aggression, underscoring the need for robust, multi-agency cooperation in national defense.
What the papers say
Lara Jakes of The New York Times reports that Lithuania has accused Belarus of launching at least 599 weather balloons and 197 drones this year to smuggle cigarettes and disrupt air traffic, leading to over 350 flight delays and airport closures totaling more than 60 hours. Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene emphasized the need for strict measures to counter these hybrid attacks. Politico highlights Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovič's statement that the emergency is driven by both civil aviation disruptions and national security concerns, with the government seeking military powers to coordinate with law enforcement. Sky News details the military's expanded authority during the emergency, including the use of force, and notes Belarus's denial of involvement, accusing Lithuania of provocations. The Independent provides context on the repeated airport closures and the broader European alertness to drone incursions, quoting Lithuanian officials describing the balloon incidents as a cynical hybrid attack. Reuters confirms the frequency of airport closures since October and Belarus's accusations against Lithuania for alleged drone espionage. These sources collectively illustrate a complex security challenge involving state and non-state actors, with Lithuania taking decisive steps to protect its sovereignty amid escalating tensions with Belarus and Russia.
How we got here
Since October 2025, Lithuania's Vilnius airport has been closed multiple times due to balloons and drones entering its airspace from Belarus. These devices are used to smuggle cigarettes and disrupt air traffic, causing significant delays and economic losses. Lithuania views these actions as hybrid warfare linked to Belarus, a close ally of Russia amid ongoing regional tensions.
Go deeper
- What are Lithuania's plans to counter the balloon and drone incursions?
- How has Belarus responded to Lithuania's accusations?
- What impact have the airport closures had on Lithuania's economy and travelers?
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Are Balloons and Drones Part of Modern Warfare?
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