What's happened
Israel’s election has produced no clear winner. Exit polls project Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc and Eisenkot’s Yashar alliance each short of 61 seats, with Arab parties seen as potential kingmakers. Final results are pending official tallies and coalition talks will determine the next government.
What's behind the headline?
The pivotal questions
- How will Netanyahu and Eisenkot navigate coalition talks if neither side reaches a majority?
- Will Arab parties become decisive kingmakers, given projected seat shares?
- How will the final results shape policies on security, settlements, and the judiciary?
Forecast
- Coalition negotiations will likely extend beyond the election night, with intensive deals shaping the next government’s composition and agenda. Expect last‑minute negotiations over key ministries and policy lines on Gaza, security, and domestic reform.
How we got here
The 2026 Israeli election marks a continuation of political volatility following the Hamas-led conflicts since 2023. Voter turnout is high, including strong participation from Arab citizens, complicating coalition calculations. Parties must negotiate to form a governing majority in the 120-seat Knesset, with no single party likely to secure 61 seats.
Our analysis
- Al Jazeera reports on exit polls showing Netanyahu bloc and opposition both short of a majority, with Arab parties potentially pivotal. - The Guardian provides live updates on turnout and coalition dynamics. - CNBC explains the mechanics of proportional representation and coalition formation, offering context for why no single party may govern.
Go deeper
- Which parties are most likely to join forces in a coalition?
- Will Arab-led parties enter negotiations, and under what terms?
- What are the immediate policy battlegrounds once a government forms?
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