What's happened
Ukraine has gained about 116 square kilometres of front-line territory in several sectors, while Russian advances have slowed to a crawl in early 2026. The Institute for the Study of War notes Kyiv’s counter-offensives and Moscow’s use of infiltration tactics to project gains that are not fully controlled.
What's behind the headline?
live briefing
- Ukraine has netted approximately 116 square kilometres this month, a first notable gain after prolonged stagnation.
- ISW cautions that infiltration tactics create a perception of progress without secure control of terrain.
- The front remains fluid with contested gray zones where gains are not consolidated.
- Ukraine’s strategy includes targeting logistics and fuel facilities to blunt Moscow’s war economy.
- Russian casualties and recruitment losses are cited as mounting, potentially affecting tempo in coming months.
what to watch
- Whether Ukrainian gains translate into meaningful strategic leverage in Donetsk’s fortress belt.
- Moscow’s response to intensified mid-range strikes and refinery disruption.
- Any shifts in international support or sanctions affecting the war economy.
How we got here
The ISW report indicates a slowdown in Russia’s advance since late 2025, with Ukrainian gains concentrated in the Sumy region north of Kharkiv and in Zaporizhzhia. Moscow has prioritized Donetsk fortress belt, while Ukraine has targeted mid-range strikes to degrade Russia’s rear and refineries.
Our analysis
France 24, Al Jazeera, The Moscow Times provide figures from ISW assessments and Ukrainian/Russian official statements. France 24 notes a 116 sq km gain and a slowdown in Russian advances; Al Jazeera details casualty figures and refinery strikes; The Moscow Times emphasizes drone-attacks and stalemate dynamics.
Go deeper
- How sustainable are Ukraine’s gains in the current front-line conditions?
- What impact will continued refinery strikes have on Russia’s war-fighting capacity?
- Could the infiltration tactic reshape the strategic balance in the near term?
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Institute for the Study of War - US think tank
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American advocacy think tank founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan and headquartered in Washington, D.C. ISW has provided analysis of modern armed conflicts and foreign affairs, including the..
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Ukraine - Country in Europe
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.
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Russia - Country
Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country located in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Covering an area of 17,125,200 square kilometres, it is the largest country in the world by area, spanning more than one-eighth of the Earth's in