What's happened
A new report from the World Economic Forum highlights rising geoeconomic confrontation as the top risk for the next two years, driven by trade tensions, tariffs, and resource control disputes. Environmental threats remain long-term concerns, while societal polarization and misinformation also threaten stability.
What's behind the headline?
The rise of geoeconomic confrontation signals a shift in global power dynamics, where economic tools are increasingly weaponized. This trend, driven by policies like tariffs and resource controls, will likely deepen international divisions and undermine multilateral cooperation. The focus on economic conflict over environmental risks in the short term suggests a prioritization of immediate geopolitical interests. However, long-term environmental threats remain critical, with climate change and biodiversity loss poised to cause irreversible damage. The underestimation of infrastructure disruptions is concerning, as digital, energy, and water systems are vital to stability. The current geopolitical climate, marked by US-China tensions and US sanctions, will likely intensify, risking further destabilization. The upcoming Davos summit will serve as a platform for these issues, but the risk is that economic rivalry will overshadow efforts for global cooperation, potentially leading to a more fractured world.
What the papers say
The Al Jazeera report emphasizes the rise of geoeconomic confrontation as the most pressing risk, citing recent trade wars and resource disputes. Saadia Zahidi from the WEF highlights how economic policy tools are becoming weaponized, reflecting a retreat from multilateralism. The Reuters article notes the perception shift, with environmental risks falling in short-term rankings but remaining top long-term concerns, especially climate change. Heather Stewart from The Guardian underscores the geopolitical tensions, including US tariffs and sanctions, and the upcoming Davos summit, which will feature leaders like Donald Trump and Zelenskyy. While all sources agree on the increasing importance of economic conflicts, Al Jazeera and Reuters focus more on the long-term environmental risks, contrasting with The Guardian's emphasis on immediate geopolitical tensions and the role of global leaders.
How we got here
The report is based on responses from over 1,300 global leaders and experts, reflecting concerns about rising trade conflicts, sanctions, and resource competition. The shift from environmental risks to economic conflicts marks a change in perceived threats, influenced by recent trade wars and geopolitical tensions, especially involving the US and China.
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The World Economic Forum, based in Cologny-Geneva, Switzerland, is an NGO, founded in 1971. The WEF's mission is cited as "committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic, and other leaders of society to shape globa
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Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
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Saadia Zahidi is a Managing Director at the World Economic Forum. She heads the Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society. She co-authors the Forum's Future of Jobs, Global Gender Gap, Reskilling Revolution, and Global Human Capital Reports.