What's happened
As of early 2026, major economies including the US, UK, France, Australia, Israel, and Japan face slowing population growth due to declining birth rates and shifting migration patterns. The US population is projected to stall by 2056, with deaths surpassing births by 2030. The UK and France see deaths outnumbering births starting in 2026, while Australia’s population grows slower amid falling fertility and migration. Israel’s growth dips below 1%, driven by increased emigration and aging.
What's behind the headline?
Demographic Shifts Are Reshaping Economies and Societies
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Population Decline and Aging: Countries like China, the US, UK, France, and Japan are experiencing population shrinkage or stagnation due to sustained low fertility rates and rising death rates. This demographic transition will increase the proportion of retirees, pressuring pension systems and healthcare.
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Migration as a Critical Factor: Migration remains the key variable influencing population growth. The US faces a demographic shock from aggressive immigration enforcement, accelerating population stagnation. The UK and France rely on net migration to offset natural population decline, but migration rates are falling, complicating growth prospects.
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Economic and Political Implications: Slower population growth threatens labor supply, economic productivity, and tax bases. The UK faces potential higher taxes and political fragility amid debates over immigration policy. The US Social Security and Medicare systems will face increased strain with fewer workers supporting more retirees.
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Regional Variations: Australia’s population continues to grow but at a slower pace due to declining fertility and migration. Israel’s population growth rate has dropped below 1%, driven by increased emigration linked to political and security concerns.
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Future Outlook: These demographic trends will require governments to adapt social safety nets, immigration policies, and economic strategies. Without effective responses, countries risk economic slowdown, increased public spending, and social tensions.
This global demographic shift is not a crisis yet but marks a fundamental transition that will define policy debates and economic planning for decades.
What the papers say
Alexandra Stevenson of The New York Times highlights China's ongoing population decline, noting that "for the fourth year in a row, China reported more deaths than births in 2025," underscoring the challenge of reversing a low fertility rate despite government efforts. France 24 reports that France's fertility rate dropped to 1.56 children per woman in 2025, "its lowest level since World War I," with economist Philippe Crevel warning of "labour market tensions and workforce problems likely to increase rapidly."
The Independent and AP News provide detailed analysis of the US demographic outlook, citing the Congressional Budget Office's projection that "starting in 2030, declining fertility rates are projected to cause births to fall short of deaths," with immigration policy changes under President Trump accelerating this trend. The Independent notes that "Trump’s tax and spending law... included roughly $150 billion to ramp up his deportation agenda," impacting population growth.
In the UK, Sky News and The Independent report that 2026 may mark "the first year in a new era when deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin," with the Resolution Foundation warning of "fewer people of working age; higher taxes; and a more fragile political landscape." The think tank emphasizes that "any population growth we do get is set to come from international net migration," which is currently declining.
Australia's SBS outlines a slowing population growth to 1.3% due to falling fertility and migration, projecting a median age rise to 40.2 years by 2035-36. The Times of Israel details Israel's population growth slowing to 1.1% in 2025, with net migration turning negative amid increased emigration linked to political and security concerns.
Together, these sources paint a comprehensive picture of a global demographic transition marked by declining birth rates, aging populations, and shifting migration patterns, with significant economic and social implications.
How we got here
For decades, many developed countries have experienced declining fertility rates below replacement levels, combined with aging populations. Migration has historically offset population declines, but recent policy shifts and economic factors have reduced migration flows. These demographic trends strain public finances and labor markets, prompting governments to reassess immigration and social policies.
Go deeper
- What are the main causes of declining birth rates worldwide?
- How is migration affecting population growth in different countries?
- What economic impacts will aging populations have globally?
Common question
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Will UK Population Decline in 2026?
The UK is facing a potential demographic shift in 2026, with experts warning that the population may start to decline. This change is driven by falling birth rates and decreasing migration, raising questions about what this means for the country's future economy and society. Curious about the details? Keep reading to understand the key factors behind this trend and what it could mean for you.
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How is climate change impacting the UK and Israel in 2025?
2025 has been a year of record-breaking heat and wildfires in the UK and Israel, driven by climate change. People are asking why these extreme weather events are happening now and what can be done to prevent them. Below, we explore the key questions about this alarming trend and what it means for the future of these regions.
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What Does the Decline in Global Populations Mean for the Future?
Recent reports from the US, UK, and Israel reveal a worrying trend: declining birth rates and reduced migration are leading to potential long-term population decline. This shift raises important questions about how economies, societies, and governments will adapt to a shrinking population. Below, we explore the key issues and what they could mean for our future.
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What Do Global Population Trends Mean for You?
Recent reports highlight significant shifts in population growth worldwide, driven by factors like aging, migration, and changing birth rates. These trends impact economies, societies, and individual futures. Curious about how these global changes might affect your life? Below, we explore key questions about population growth, migration, and regional impacts to help you understand what’s happening and what it could mean for you.
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Which Countries Are Facing Population Decline and What Does It Mean?
Many nations around the world are experiencing declining birth rates, aging populations, and reduced migration. These demographic shifts could have major impacts on their economies, social services, and geopolitical stability. Curious which countries are most affected and what the future holds? Keep reading to find out how these trends might shape our world.
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What Are the Key International Crises Right Now?
Global stability is currently shaped by several major crises, from political upheavals to economic shifts and regional conflicts. Understanding these issues helps us grasp how they might impact the world in the coming weeks. Below, we explore the most pressing international events, their interconnected themes, and what to watch for in the near future.
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Why Is Global Population Growth Slowing Down?
Global population growth is experiencing a significant slowdown, with many countries facing declining birth rates and aging populations. This shift raises important questions about the future of economies, social systems, and migration patterns worldwide. Curious about what’s causing these changes and what they mean for the future? Keep reading to find out more about the key factors behind this demographic transition and how it might impact your life.
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How Will Population Decline Impact Economies and Societies?
As global population growth slows and some countries face shrinking workforces, many wonder what this means for the economy, healthcare, and social stability. From the US and UK to Japan and Israel, demographic shifts are reshaping the future. Below, we explore the key questions about these changes and what they could mean for you and your country.
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How Will Global Migration and Population Trends Change in the Future?
As the world's population growth slows and migration patterns shift, many are wondering what the future holds for countries experiencing demographic changes. From aging populations to declining birth rates, these trends could reshape economies, societies, and borders. Here are some of the most common questions about the future of migration and population shifts and what they might mean for us all.
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How Will Global Population Changes Impact Our Future?
As of early 2026, major countries are experiencing slowing or declining populations due to lower birth rates and shifting migration patterns. This demographic shift raises important questions about economic stability, geopolitical power, and social services. How will these changes shape our world in the coming decades? Below, we explore key questions about the future of global populations and what it means for everyone.
More on these topics
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Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.
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Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
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The Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government that provides budget and economic information to Congress.
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The Resolution Foundation is an independent British think tank established in 2005. Its stated aim is to improve the standard of living of low- and middle-income families.
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Baby boomers are the demographic cohort following the Silent Generation and preceding Generation X. The generation is generally defined as people born from 1946 to 1964, during the post–World War II baby boom.
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The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.