What's happened
Since the October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza, violence has persisted with Israeli forces killing over 580 Palestinians and Hamas militants attacking Israeli troops. Recent clashes include Israeli strikes on Hamas commanders and militants emerging from tunnels near Rafah. Indonesia is preparing up to 8,000 troops for a potential peacekeeping mission in Gaza, while the Rafah crossing with Egypt has reopened, allowing limited civilian movement.
What's behind the headline?
Persistent Ceasefire Violations Undermine Stability
The ongoing violence in Gaza reveals the fragility of the US-brokered ceasefire, which has failed to halt hostilities despite formal agreements. Israeli strikes targeting Hamas militants emerging from tunnels underscore the continued security concerns Israel faces, while Palestinian casualties fuel perceptions that the war persists unabated.
International Peacekeeping Faces Challenges
Indonesia's preparation to deploy up to 8,000 troops for humanitarian and reconstruction roles marks a significant development in international involvement. However, the force's mandate excludes disarmament duties, a core unresolved issue, highlighting the complexities in implementing the peace plan.
Rafah Crossing Reopening: A Double-Edged Sword
The reopening of the Rafah crossing with Egypt offers vital humanitarian relief by allowing limited civilian movement and medical evacuations. Yet, it also symbolizes the incomplete nature of the ceasefire, as Israel maintains control over much of Gaza and Hamas resists disarmament.
Forecast: Continued Tensions and Incremental Progress
Without resolution on disarmament and full Israeli withdrawal, ceasefire breaches and retaliatory strikes will likely continue. The international community's role, particularly through the International Stabilization Force, will be critical in managing security and humanitarian needs, but political obstacles remain significant.
How we got here
The Gaza conflict escalated after Hamas militants attacked southern Israel in October 2023, killing over 1,200 people. A US-brokered ceasefire took effect in October 2025, aiming to demilitarize Gaza and facilitate Israeli troop withdrawal. Despite the truce, both sides have accused each other of violations, with ongoing violence and stalled peace efforts.
Our analysis
Reuters reports on February 15 that Israeli airstrikes killed at least nine Palestinians in southern Gaza, with the Israeli military emphasizing the precision and legality of their strikes in response to Hamas militants breaching the ceasefire near the Yellow Line. The Times of Israel provides detailed accounts of militants emerging from tunnels and Israeli forces responding with drone strikes, highlighting ongoing security operations and near-daily ceasefire violations. The Independent and AP News focus on the humanitarian toll, noting over 580 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire and the reopening of the Rafah crossing facilitating limited civilian movement. They also report Indonesia's military preparations for a peacekeeping mission, emphasizing the focus on reconstruction and humanitarian roles rather than disarmament. The New Arab adds regional diplomatic context, including calls from Muslim-majority countries for restraint and the challenges in implementing the ceasefire's phases. These sources collectively illustrate the complex interplay of military actions, humanitarian concerns, and international diplomacy shaping the Gaza conflict's current phase.
Go deeper
- What are the main obstacles to fully implementing the Gaza ceasefire?
- How will Indonesia's peacekeeping troops operate in Gaza?
- What impact does the Rafah crossing reopening have on Gaza's civilians?
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