What's happened
Recent UN reports indicate that global economic growth will slow to 2.7-2.9% in 2026, slightly below 2025. Despite resilience to US tariffs, persistent weaknesses, geopolitical tensions, and inflation pressures threaten to keep growth below pre-pandemic levels.
What's behind the headline?
The outlook for 2026 remains cautiously pessimistic. Despite unexpected resilience supported by consumer spending and easing inflation, the report highlights that growth will likely remain below pre-pandemic averages. The slowdown in major economies like the US, EU, and Japan reflects ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. The projected growth in large developing economies such as China, India, and Indonesia offers some optimism, but high debt levels and climate shocks pose significant risks. The report underscores that technological advances, particularly in AI, are fueling pockets of investment but may exacerbate inequalities. The slow recovery and persistent vulnerabilities suggest that global economic momentum will stay subdued, with risks of further shocks increasing. The emphasis on coordinated global action indicates that policymakers must address structural weaknesses to prevent deeper downturns.
What the papers say
The Japan Times reports that despite a tariff shock in 2025, global economic activity proved resilient, supported by front-loaded shipments and consumer spending. All Africa highlights that the UN predicts a slight slowdown to 2.7-2.9% growth in 2026, with risks from high debt and climate shocks. France 24 emphasizes that growth will edge up to 2.9% in 2027, but remains below the 2010-2019 average, citing geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties. AP News echoes these points, noting that the resilience was supported by consumer spending and AI investments, but underlying weaknesses persist, especially in Europe, Japan, and the US, with growth projections remaining modest. The contrasting perspectives underscore that while some optimism exists, the overarching narrative is one of cautious recovery amid ongoing vulnerabilities.
How we got here
The global economy has faced multiple shocks, including US tariff increases in 2025, geopolitical tensions, and technological shifts like AI. These factors have created uncertainty, impacting investment and trade. While some economies show resilience, underlying weaknesses such as high debt and limited fiscal space persist, especially in developing countries.
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Common question
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What are the global economic forecasts for 2027?
Experts project a slight improvement in global growth for 2027, but many challenges remain. While economies like China, India, and Indonesia are expected to perform well, others face risks from debt, climate shocks, and geopolitical tensions. Curious about which countries will lead the way and what threats could impact the recovery? Keep reading to find out what the experts are saying about the future of the global economy.
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The United Nations is an intergovernmental organization that aims to maintain international peace and security, develop friendly relations among nations, achieve international cooperation, and be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations.
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China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of around 1.4 billion in 2019.
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India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the second-most populous country, the seventh-largest country by land area, and the most populous democracy in the world.
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Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia, is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania, between the Indian and Pacific oceans. It consists of more than seventeen thousand islands, including Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Sulawesi, and New Guinea. Indonesia i