What's happened
Guinea's military leader Mamady Doumbouya is expected to win the upcoming December 28 presidential election, consolidating his power after sidelining opponents. The election follows the September 2021 coup and the launch of the Simandou iron ore project, which faces significant workforce reductions amid ongoing political and economic challenges.
What's behind the headline?
Guinea's upcoming election on December 28 is set to reinforce Mamady Doumbouya's grip on power, despite sidelining key challengers. The election follows the launch of the controversial Simandou iron ore project, which has promised economic growth but is now experiencing significant workforce reductions. This paradox highlights the tension between resource-driven economic ambitions and social stability. Doumbouya's consolidation of power, combined with the project’s delays and layoffs, risks deepening social unrest and economic hardship. The project’s workforce peaked at over 60,000 but is now being drastically cut, with fewer than 15,000 remaining, raising concerns about increased accidents and protests. The political landscape remains fragile, with the recent attempted coup in Benin illustrating regional instability. Doumbouya’s victory is likely to entrench his authority, but the economic discontent and social tensions could threaten long-term stability. The international community will watch closely, as Guinea’s resource wealth and political stability are critical to regional security and economic prospects.
What the papers say
Reuters reports that Doumbouya, who gained broad support after leading the 2021 coup, is expected to win the upcoming election, which he previously pledged not to contest. The launch of the Simandou project was marked by national celebrations, but recent developments reveal significant layoffs and social unrest, with thousands of workers losing jobs amid delays and project restructuring. Reuters also highlights concerns about the social impact of workforce reductions, which could lead to protests and accidents. Meanwhile, France 24 covers the recent coup attempt in Benin, illustrating regional instability and the fragile nature of military and political power in West Africa. The contrasting narratives show a region grappling with military influence, resource ambitions, and political legitimacy, with Guinea’s election serving as a pivotal moment for Doumbouya’s regime.
How we got here
Mamady Doumbouya led a coup in September 2021 that ousted President Alpha Conde. Since then, Doumbouya has consolidated power, including launching the Simandou iron ore project, Guinea's largest resource development. The project aims to boost the economy but has faced delays, job cuts, and social unrest. The upcoming election is seen as a key step in Doumbouya's efforts to legitimize his rule amid ongoing economic and political issues.
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