Summer box office splits

What's happened

Toy Story 5 has opened to record franchise returns, grossing roughly $312m worldwide and dominating ticket sales. Low‑budget horror films made by online creators — notably Obsession, Backrooms and Iron Lung — have posted surprise gains. By contrast, DCilms' Supergirl has underperformed, opening far below studio expectations and drawing poor reviews.

What's behind the headline?

What the numbers mean

• Toy Story 5 has established a new benchmark for the franchise with an estimated $160m domestic and $152m international opening, giving a roughly $312m worldwide weekend. That performance will sustain Disney's summer box office lead and push the sequel toward the billion‑dollar zone.

Why YouTube filmmakers are winning

• Films like Obsession, Backrooms and Iron Lung have converted social followings into theatre turnout. Each title has relied on low budgets, word‑of‑mouth and direct-to-audience promotion. That model is proving more efficient than some mid‑budget studio tentpoles.

What Supergirl's failure shows

• Supergirl has opened well below expectations, with weak critical reception and a hollow opening weekend versus its $170m production cost. Studios will now face pressure to reassess release strategies for expensive superhero spinoffs and tighten test‑screening responses.

Near-term consequences

• Studios will increase emphasis on franchise certainty and marketing precision. Independent and creator‑driven horror will continue to take share from mid‑budget studio films because they cost less to launch and can grow after opening via social traction.

Forecast

• Toy Story 5 will remain a box office pillar for weeks. Low‑budget horror films will keep forcing studios to adapt release calendars and marketing spend. Supergirl's stumble will accelerate cautious greenlighting of expensive standalone superhero projects.

How we got here

A strong Toy Story 5 launch follows a string of high-performing family titles and heavy marketing. At the same time, a wave of low‑budget horror films by YouTube creators has driven unexpected box office growth, while some superhero releases have cooled after earlier franchise highs.

Our analysis

The New York Times Business has framed the trend as a possible industry upending, noting that Obsession, Backrooms and Iron Lung — each tied to young creators — have redefined summer hits: "Obsession...has now crossed $200 million" and Backrooms opened to an "astounding $81.5 million" (New York Times Business). TechCrunch emphasised the unusual trajectory of Obsession, reporting it "made more money in its second weekend than its first" and calling these creators' longevity a factor. AP News and The Independent provided box office context for Toy Story 5's franchise record and for Supergirl's weak debut: AP said Toy Story 5 had a $160m domestic opening and a $312m worldwide haul, while The Independent reported Supergirl opened to just $38m in the U.S. and Canada and drew poor reviews. Business Insider, CNBC and the BBC supplied complementary figures and audience details: CNBC highlighted premium format sales and family demographics, BBC noted Toy Story 5's place among Pixar's most lucrative releases, and Business Insider flagged the film's tech‑timed theme about tablets. Together, these outlets show a clear split: data and reporting align on Toy Story 5's dominance and the rising power of creator‑led horror, while they converge in diagnosing Supergirl as a costly underperformer.

Go deeper

• How long will Toy Story 5 sustain its box office lead?
• Will studios change release strategies for mid-budget films after these creator hits?

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