What's happened
Airstrikes by US and Saudi forces hit PMF sites in Iraq after attacks on Saudi facilities, while Iran-backed groups and regional rivalries threaten Iraq’s new prime minister’s plan to disarm militias and anchor the state. The broader Strait of Hormuz dynamics and Yemen’s Houthis add layers to the conflict, risking wider regional instability.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
- This escalation tests Zaidi’s plan to consolidate security under the state as non-state armed groups push back.
- The strikes reveal a delicate balance: Iraq seeks Gulf engagement and diversification of partnerships, but regional powers and non-state actors keep the country at the epicenter of a wider confrontation.
- The next moves will hinge on whether Baghdad can extract concessions from PMF factions while maintaining stability for economic reforms.
How we got here
Iraq’s new prime minister Ali al-Zaidi has pledged to disarm militias and bring armed groups under state control by September 30. The PMF, an umbrella of Iran-aligned factions, has long operated with varying autonomy from official security structures. Recent cross-border strikes and retaliatory rhetoric follow attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and escalating tensions involving Iran, the US, and Gulf states.
Our analysis
The New Arab reports on July 29-29 and August 3, highlighting RoG dynamics; AP News adds context on Hormuz and Iran-linked networks; Independent and AP detail PMF’s role and Iraq’s disarmament deadline.
Go deeper
- What effect will the disarmament deadline have on PMF factions in the near term?
- How might regional powers adjust their tactics if Zaidi moves to expand state authority over militias?
- Could the wider Gulf crisis derail Iraq’s reform agenda?
More on these topics
-
Saudi Arabia - Country in the Middle East
Saudi Arabia, officially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a country in Western Asia constituting the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula.
-
Iran (Islamic Republic of Iran) - Country in the Middle East
Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a
-
Iraq - Country in the Middle East
Iraq, officially the Republic of Iraq, is a country in Western Asia, bordered by Turkey to the north, Iran to the east, Kuwait to the southeast, Saudi Arabia to the south, Jordan to the southwest and Syria to the west.
-
United States - Country in North America
The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.
-
Lebanon - Country in the Middle East
Lebanon, officially known as the Lebanese Republic, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered by Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, while Cyprus lies west across the Mediterranean Sea.
-
Popular Mobilization Forces - Armed force
The Popular Mobilization Forces, also known as the People's Mobilization Committee and the Popular Mobilization Units, is an Iraqi state-sponsored umbrella organization composed of some 40 militias that are mostly Shia Muslim groups, but also include Sunn
-
Donald Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.
-
Houthis
The Houthi movement, officially called Ansar Allah and colloquially simply Houthis, is an Islamic political and armed movement that emerged from Sa'dah in northern Yemen in the 1990s.
-
Islamic state - Form of government
An Islamic state is a state that has a form of government based on Islamic law. As a term, it has been used to describe various historical polities and theories of governance in the Islamic world.
-
Yemen - Country in the Middle East
Yemen, officially the Republic of Yemen, is a country at the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula in Western Asia. It is the second-largest Arab sovereign state in the peninsula, occupying 527,970 square kilometres.
-
Israel - Country in the Middle East
Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.