Lebanon braces for security transition as UNIFIL ends

What's happened

The UN mission in southern Lebanon has begun preparations for a post-UNIFIL security order as the 2026 mandate nears its end. Paris-hosted discussions, French-Italian proposals for a multinational follow-on force, and US-backed frameworks aim to prevent a power vacuum as the Lebanese army and security forces assume greater regional duties.

What's behind the headline?

Analysis

• The end of UNIFIL’s mandate has accelerated international discussions about a successor presence. The Paris meetings and Aqaba Process discussions underscore a push to link aid and reform to a credible security framework. This could influence Lebanon’s sovereignty and the balance with non-state actors.
• The involvement of France, Italy, and the US signals divergent approaches: a multinational force vs. strengthening state institutions. The outcome will hinge on political will, regional stability, and Lebanon’s capacity to deploy and absorb security responsibilities without triggering internal conflict.
• Readers should monitor whether any successor mission prioritizes Lebanese army modernization and border control, or whether it leans toward civilian oversight with limited enforcement capabilities.

How we got here

UNIFIL has operated in southern Lebanon for nearly five decades. With a 2026 expiry, governments are debating options to fill the security gap, including a multinational coalition or a civilian-military mission to support Lebanon’s security institutions.

Our analysis

The New Arab reports on Macron-Aoun discussions and the Aqaba Process; Independent and AP News cover donor conferences and Lebanon’s struggle to fund and energize its army; Arab News details Jordanian support and the ongoing push for a Lebanese security framework.

Go deeper

• What new security arrangements are being considered as UNIFIL ends?
• Will donor countries agree to a successor mission and under what terms?
• How might Lebanon’s army planning affect security along the Blue Line?

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