What's happened
Recent polls have shown President Trump’s approval ratings have dropped into the mid-30s while public concern about inflation and fuel costs has increased after the war with Iran has driven global energy prices higher; voters are expressing widespread disapproval of his handling of the economy and the Iran strikes as midterms approach.
What's behind the headline?
Why approval has fallen
- Polling has shown Trump has lost ground because the Iran war has raised fuel costs that are directly affecting household budgets. Voters are framing energy price rises as the administration's failure to deliver on its promise to lower costs.
Who is shifting and why it matters
- Independents and key demographic groups (Hispanics, under-45s) are moving away from Trump; that is reducing the president's margin in competitive districts and will increase the likelihood Democrats will gain seats in November.
Economic channel and political consequence
- Higher petrol and diesel prices are increasing transport and grocery costs now and will continue to push inflation statistics upward in the near term. This will increase political pressure on the administration and will force Republicans to defend the president’s decisions on the Iran strikes and tariff policies.
Forecast
- Poll numbers will remain weak while fuel prices stay elevated and the Strait of Hormuz stays sealed; that will increase the risk Republicans losing control of contested House and Senate races in November.
What to watch next
- Whether the White House accepts Iran’s proposal to reopen the Hormuz route or continues to press on nuclear issues; and whether petrol prices retreat quickly if the route reopens, which will directly affect public sentiment.
How we got here
The U.S. launched strikes on Iran on February 28 and a fragile ceasefire has been in place since April; Iran and the U.S. have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed via blockades, which has pushed petrol and diesel prices sharply higher and fed inflation concerns ahead of November midterms.
Our analysis
Reuters has reported that a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 24–27 found 34% approve of Trump’s performance, and only 22% approve of his handling of the cost of living, noting the survey gathered 1,014 U.S. adults and had a 3-point margin of error (Jason Lange, Reuters, Apr 28). Al Jazeera highlighted the same Reuters findings and added that the poll showed only 22% back Trump on the cost of living and that the Strait of Hormuz closure has pushed the U.S. gallon price to about $4.17 (Al Jazeera Staff, Apr 28). The New York Times’ polling average was cited for showing Trump’s net approval has moved to negative territory and that seven in ten voters say the economy is getting worse (New York Times, Apr 23). The Independent and Mirror supplied market and opinion detail: The Mirror reported JPMorgan data showing U.S. petrol is up 42% since the Feb 28 conflict and diesel up 48% (Benedict Tetzlaff-Deas, The Mirror, May 2), while The Independent and other outlets documented falling approval ratings on the economy and mounting Republican concern that this will hurt midterm prospects (multiple Independent articles, Apr 23–29). Politico’s reporting of a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll showed 61% of U.S. adults said the strikes on Iran were a mistake, and only 19% said the military actions were successful (Gregory Svirnovskiy, Politico, May 1). Together these sources show consistent findings: petrol prices have risen materially since February, voters are blaming the administration for higher costs, and approval ratings for the president and his economic stewardship have declined across several independent polls.
Go deeper
- How quickly will petrol prices fall if the Strait of Hormuz reopens?
- Which voter groups are most likely to switch their midterm votes because of fuel prices?
- What specific bargaining is happening between the U.S. and Iran over reopening shipping lanes?
More on these topics
-
Donald Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.
-
Iran - Country in the Middle East
Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a
-
Strait of Hormuz - Strait
The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.
-
Harry Enten - American journalist
Harry Joe Enten is an American journalist best known for his former role as a senior political writer and analyst for the website FiveThirtyEight and his current job as a senior writer and analyst for CNN Politics.
-
Gallup - Wikimedia disambiguation page
Gallup may refer to: Gallup, Inc., a firm founded by George Gallup, well known for its opinion poll Gallup (surname), a surname Gallup, New Mexico, a city in New Mexico, United States Gallup station, an Amtrak train in downtown Gallup, New Mexico Gallup.