AfD surge deepens pressure on Merz

What's happened

Regional ballots in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have shown heavy losses for Friedrich Merz’s CDU and strong gains for the far-right AfD, two weeks after the AfD routed the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt. Merz has cancelled travel, convened CDU leaders and cleared his diary as party figures warn the results will increase pressure on his leadership.

What's behind the headline?

What the results mean now

• The AfD has converted regional discontent into votes and is consolidating a strong national polling position. That will force mainstream parties to respond to voter anger about living costs, security and migration.

What is driving the shift

• Economic anxiety and high energy costs are energising the AfD’s message. Voters in the ex-communist east remain especially receptive to the party’s nationalist and Russia-friendly posture.

Political consequences for Merz

• Merz has cancelled his UN trip, is holding CDU crisis meetings and is clearing his calendar. This will increase internal pressure on his leadership and make it harder for him to sell big reforms to coalition partners.

How other parties will react

• Mainstream parties are continuing to refuse coalitions with the AfD, but they will adjust strategies: the SPD and CDU will intensify local campaigning; the Left will capitalise on urban issues like housing in Berlin.

Forecast

• The AfD will translate regional gains into sustained national momentum but will remain blocked from governing where other parties form a cordon sanitaire. The CDU will face a test of internal unity; if losses deepen, a leadership challenge will become likely and could prompt a mid-term party change or reshuffle.

Immediate impact

• Policy on Ukraine and defence will become harder to drive publicly from Berlin as the government focuses on stabilising its domestic position. Expect quieter, more cautious support for foreign commitments and a sharper emphasis on domestic cost-of-living measures.

How we got here

The AfD has been building momentum after a near-majority win in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September. Merz has led a CDU–SPD federal coalition since May 2025 and has faced sliding approval ratings while trying to reboot the economy, expand defence spending and curb irregular migration.

Our analysis

Coverage across outlets has been consistent on the core facts but varied in emphasis. The BBC reported the immediate electoral projections, noting the AfD was "projected to take 38%" in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and that the CDU risked falling below 5% there. France 24 and Arab News highlighted Merz cancelling his UN trip and calling a CDU crisis meeting: "his presence is required in Berlin," an anonymous official told AFP and was repeated by several outlets. The Guardian framed the story around Merz’s vulnerability, quoting his defence that he "was elected for four years" while warning that party leaders may press for stability; it also cited state premiers urging "stability now more than ever." Al Jazeera placed the results in a wider geopolitical frame, quoting Catherine Fieschi that the AfD victory "is bad news for Germany" and will weaken support for Ukraine, and reported Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov praising the AfD’s stance on relations with Russia. BBC Business, AP and Reuters-sourced briefings focused on the immediate operational politics: exit polls, low approval ratings (around 10–14% in polls cited) and the prospect of a "Kanzlertausch" (chancellor swap). Read the BBC for clear projection figures; read Al Jazeera for commentary on international consequences; read the Guardian for analysis of internal CDU dynamics and quotes from party figures.

Go deeper

• Will CDU leaders press for a leadership change now that two more state votes have weakened the party?
• How will the federal government adjust its public support for Ukraine while under domestic political strain?
• Can mainstream parties coordinate strategies to keep the AfD out of power without fragmenting their own support?

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