What's happened
Recent analyses reveal that China's foreign actions are primarily driven by regime survival needs, including economic resilience, energy security, and social stability. This perspective shifts focus from ambitions to vulnerabilities, highlighting how China manages risks amid slowing growth and geopolitical pressures.
What's behind the headline?
China's actions are less about unbounded ambition and more about risk management for regime survival. Recognizing this shifts the narrative from China seeking dominance to it safeguarding core needs.
- Economic resilience is paramount; slowing growth and export controls threaten legitimacy.
- Energy dependence, with 70% oil imports, makes China vulnerable to supply shocks, prompting investments in pipelines, natural gas deals, and renewables.
- Food security remains a red line, with policies aimed at self-sufficiency despite market distortions.
This risk-focused approach explains China's assertiveness abroad as a defensive posture, not an expansionist one. It also highlights where policy leverage exists—by addressing these vulnerabilities, external actors can influence China's behavior. The emphasis on internal stability over external conquest underscores the regime's prioritization of survival over expansion, shaping its foreign policy in subtle but significant ways.
What the papers say
The South China Morning Post emphasizes that China's foreign actions are driven by needs such as economic stability, energy security, and social order, framing these as risk management strategies rather than ambitions. Conversely, the Japan Times discusses Japan's precarious position amid a declining U.S. security guarantee and China's regional assertiveness, highlighting the broader geopolitical context. While the Post focuses on China's internal vulnerabilities, the Japan Times underscores the regional implications of shifting power dynamics. Politico offers insight into U.S.-Russia-China interactions, illustrating how global power plays are influenced by perceptions of strength and legitimacy, with former President Trump's approach potentially misaligned with America's foundational institutions. These perspectives collectively deepen understanding of the strategic calculations behind China's foreign policy and regional security concerns.
How we got here
Over four decades, China's rapid economic growth has been central to its legitimacy, with policies like 'dual circulation' emphasizing resilience at home and diversification abroad. Challenges such as slowing exports, energy dependence, and food security concerns have prompted Beijing to pursue indigenous innovation, energy diversification, and strategic stockpiling, framing these as life insurance for regime stability.
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China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of around 1.4 billion in 2019.