Ukraine strikes deep into Russia

What's happened

Ukraine has used long-range drones to hit strategic targets deep inside Russia this week, striking St Petersburg's oil terminal, the Kronstadt naval base and supply lines to occupied Crimea. Russian authorities have reported hundreds of intercepted drones, governors have ordered residents to shelter indoors, and Crimea is facing severe fuel shortages that are disrupting travel and tourism.

What's behind the headline?

What the strikes change

• Ukraine is demonstrating a clear ability to strike targets about 1,000km inside Russian territory, including a naval arsenal at Kronstadt and an oil terminal in St Petersburg. That capability is shifting the tactical balance by making rear areas and logistics nodes vulnerable.

Military and political consequences

• Russia is strengthening and dispersing air defences, which will increase its military costs and complicate force concentrations near the front.
• Fuel shortages in occupied Crimea will reduce mobility for Russian forces there and will damage the peninsula's tourism economy, increasing domestic pressure on Moscow.

Likely next moves

• Russia will prioritise hardened protection of energy and naval infrastructure and will escalate long-range strikes against Ukrainian logistics and cities. This will raise civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in both countries.

Strategic forecast

• Kyiv's long-range campaign will force Russia to spread air-defence and security assets more thinly, which will reduce Russian capacity for offensive operations and will increase the war's attritional cost for Moscow. Over months, this will increase political strain inside Russia and will push European partners to consider expanded air-defence and longer-range support for Ukraine.

How we got here

Since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and its 2022 full-scale invasion, Ukraine has been developing long-range drone and missile strikes to disrupt Russian logistics. Kyiv has repeatedly targeted oil depots, naval facilities and the Kerch Bridge; Moscow has increased air defences and retaliatory strikes but supply routes remain vulnerable.

Our analysis

The reporting converges on three clear facts: Kyiv has struck deep into Russia; Russian authorities have reported large numbers of intercepted drones; and Crimea is suffering fuel shortages. The Guardian (Simon Tisdall and David Levene) has reported on the strikes and quoted Ukrainian gains and Russian losses, noting long-range drone attacks on St Petersburg and pressure on Russian recruitment and logistics. The New York Times (Neil MacFarquhar) described officials saying more than 140 drones were shot down and quoted President Zelensky on the roughly 1,000km reach to Kronstadt. AP News, France 24 and Politico reported regional governors ordering residents to shelter indoors and air-defence tallies ranging from dozens to several hundred intercepted drones. Independent Business has emphasised the strikes on fuel trucks and the resulting fuel crisis in occupied Crimea and linked that to Ukraine's campaign against Russian supply lines. These pieces together show a pattern: Kyiv is combining long-range strikes on energy and naval targets with midrange attacks on supply convoys to choke Russian logistics, while Moscow is publicly stressing air-defence successes even as domestic disruptions and shortages rise.

Go deeper

• How will Russia change air-defence deployments after these strikes?
• Will European states increase air-defence support for Ukraine?
• How will fuel shortages affect civilians and tourism in Crimea this summer?

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