Zelensky warns airlines: Russia unsafe

What's happened

Ukraine has warned airlines and insurers that expanding Ukrainian drone strikes have made Russian airspace unsafe for civilian flights. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine is not targeting civilian aircraft but that "drone‑infested skies" require airlines to rethink routings. Moscow has called the warning "state terrorism" and pledged to protect airports and keep services running.

What's behind the headline?

What happened

Ukraine has formally warned airlines and insurers that its expanding drone campaign has made Russian airspace unsafe for civilian operations. Zelensky has said Ukraine is not targeting civil aircraft but that "there will simply be drones in Russia's skies" that must be taken into account.

What is driving this

• Ukraine is mass‑producing longer‑range drones and is striking infrastructure, oil refineries and logistics hubs deep inside Russia.
• Repeated drone alerts are causing temporary airspace restrictions and airport disruptions at hubs such as Moscow and St Petersburg.
• Kyiv has lodged notifications with the International Civil Aviation Organization to flag the risk to civilian flights.

Immediate consequences

• Airlines that still fly over Russia — mainly Chinese, Turkish and Gulf carriers — are reassessing routes and some have reported cancellations or delays.
• Russia is mobilising civil aviation, defence and internal security agencies to keep airports operating and minimise disruptions.

Likely next steps

• National aviation authorities and insurers will increase risk assessments and flight planning; several carriers will reroute or suspend services to Russian airports to avoid insurance exposure.
• ICAO will continue to urge member states to protect civilian aircraft; any coordinated prohibition of flights over Russia will force longer, costlier routes between Europe and Asia and squeeze carriers' margins.
• Moscow will intensify defensive measures around major airports and publicise those measures to limit commercial fallout, but repeated drone alerts will still cause periodic closures and passenger disruption.

Forecast

This will increase operational costs for airlines using Russian corridors and will likely push more carriers to avoid Russian airspace. Economic pressure on Russia's connectivity will grow as routing shifts and insurance premiums rise.

How we got here

Since Russia's full‑scale invasion in 2022, most Western carriers have avoided Russian airspace. Ukraine has kept its own airspace closed to civilian flights. In 2026 Kyiv has intensified long‑range drone attacks that have repeatedly forced temporary closures at Russian airports and disrupted flight schedules.

Our analysis

Several outlets have reported the same core facts but framed them differently. Read Volodymyr Zelensky's warning as quoted by The Independent: "the Russian sky is becoming completely dangerous," and his explicit line that "drone‑infested skies are no place for civilian aviation." France 24 published Kyiv's letter to ICAO and quoted the agency saying it is "observing heightened risks of civil aircraft being targeted or caught in crossfire." That piece also cited Osprey Flight Solutions warning that Ukraine's strikes are reaching deep into Russia and have already forced airport closures. The Moscow Times and Russian government statements stressed resilience and mitigation: Transportation Minister Andrei Nikitin told Interfax and The Moscow Times that authorities "are constantly improving flight safety" and are coordinating with the defence ministry to prevent "any significant disruption". Air carriers' voices are limited in these reports; Qatar Airways told The Independent that it is "continuously assess[ing] all available information" and will adapt operations, illustrating how airlines are balancing safety checks with commercial routes. Where outlets diverge is tone: Russian and Moscow‑based sources emphasise control and continuity, while Western and regional outlets emphasise operational risk and potential escalation to broader commercial bans.

Go deeper

• Which airlines currently fly regular routes over Russia?
• How will rerouting affect ticket prices and flight times between Europe and Asia?
• What measures can ICAO enforce to protect civilian aircraft?

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