What's happened
Labour now leads the weekly More in Common poll with 28% support, up four points, while Reform and the Greens fall. Burnham has been praised for momentum after taking office, while Reform faces donations and sleaze questions. The poll suggests Labour could win a bare majority if a general election were held, though the results are one-off.
What's behind the headline?
Context and momentum
- Labour has surged in the latest More in Common poll, indicating momentum after a week of policy announcements.
- Burnham’s leadership is central to perceived momentum, with analysts noting a shift from left and right voters.
- The opposition coalition appears fragile; Reform and Greens have slipped, while Tories hold steady.
What the numbers imply
- A hypothetical general election could give Labour a narrow working majority (325 seats to 124 for Tories and 88 for Reform).
- The poll’s headwinds include ongoing scrutiny of donations to Reform UK and a controversy around Burnham’s media approach.
Caveats
- The poll is a snapshot and may not predict actual results; turnout and new issues could reshape dynamics.
How we got here
The Guardian and Independent report Labour’s surge in the latest More in Common tracker, with Labour leading for the first time since March 2025. Burnham, having taken over as prime minister after Labour MPs lost confidence in Starmer, has focused on cost-of-living themes. Reform UK is under scrutiny over undeclared gifts and donations.
Our analysis
The Independent; The Guardian; Bloomberg (poll data)
Go deeper
- Will Labour maintain momentum as Burnham addresses youth unemployment and housing this week?
- How might Reform’s fundraising scrutiny affect its vote share in upcoming local elections?
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