What's happened
On November 16, 2025, Ecuadorians voted against allowing foreign military bases, including US bases, with 61% opposing the measure. This referendum defeat is a political setback for President Daniel Noboa, who supports foreign cooperation to combat drug trafficking. Concurrently, Wilmer Chavarria, leader of the Los Lobos cartel, was arrested in Spain after faking his death and coordinating criminal activities from Europe.
What's behind the headline?
Political and Security Implications
The referendum's rejection of foreign military bases, particularly US bases, marks a significant political rebuke to President Noboa's strategy to combat drug trafficking through international military cooperation. Despite his personal popularity and recent electoral success, voters expressed distrust in his governance, influenced by rising violence and unpopular economic measures like diesel subsidy cuts.
The Capture of Wilmer Chavarria
The arrest of Chavarria, alias "Pipo," leader of the Los Lobos cartel, in Malaga, Spain, underscores the transnational nature of Ecuador's drug crisis. His ability to fake death, assume a new identity, and orchestrate criminal operations from Europe highlights the challenges Ecuador faces in dismantling sophisticated criminal networks.
Broader Regional Context
Ecuador's security crisis is part of a wider Latin American struggle against powerful drug cartels exploiting porous borders and weak institutions. Noboa's push for constitutional reform aimed at strengthening state powers and judicial reforms was also rejected, reflecting public skepticism about political solutions to deep-rooted problems.
Forecast and Consequences
The referendum results will likely constrain Noboa's ability to deepen foreign military cooperation, potentially limiting resources to combat drug trafficking. Meanwhile, the capture of Chavarria may disrupt Los Lobos temporarily but could provoke violent turf wars as factions vie for control. The ongoing violence and institutional weaknesses suggest Ecuador faces a prolonged security challenge.
Impact on Readers
For international observers and regional partners, Ecuador's rejection of foreign bases signals limits to US influence in Latin America’s security affairs. For Ecuadorians, the results reflect a complex balance between sovereignty concerns and the urgent need for effective crime control.
What the papers say
Genevieve Glatsky of The New York Times highlights the political fallout for President Noboa, noting that "voters at home delivered Mr. Noboa a sharp rebuke" by rejecting the referendum, despite his alliance with US figures and efforts to allow foreign military bases. Sky News and the New York Post provide detailed accounts of Wilmer Chavarria's arrest, emphasizing his role as leader of Los Lobos, a cartel with 8,000 fighters designated a terrorist organization by the US, and his evasion tactics including faking his death and operating from Spain.
Reuters and France 24 focus on the referendum's broader context, reporting that over 61% of voters rejected both the foreign military bases and constitutional assembly proposals, framing the vote as a response to rising violence and dissatisfaction with Noboa's governance. Al Jazeera offers a comprehensive overview of Ecuador's security crisis, Noboa's militarized crackdown, and the capture of Chavarria coinciding with the referendum.
The Independent and AP News corroborate the details of Chavarria's arrest and his criminal activities, while also noting the political violence and insecurity gripping Ecuador. These sources collectively illustrate a nation at a crossroads, grappling with sovereignty, security, and governance challenges amid escalating cartel violence.
How we got here
Ecuador, once one of South America's safest countries, has seen a surge in drug-related violence and homicides due to its strategic location as a cocaine transit hub. President Daniel Noboa, elected in 2023, has pushed for constitutional reforms and foreign military cooperation to tackle organized crime. The 2008 constitution bans foreign military bases, a ban challenged in the recent referendum amid rising insecurity and cartel violence.
Go deeper
- Why did Ecuadorians reject the foreign military bases referendum?
- What impact will Wilmer Chavarria's arrest have on drug trafficking in Ecuador?
- How is President Noboa responding to rising violence and political setbacks?
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