US-led coalition ends combat mission in Iraq

What's happened

The US-led coalition has formally concluded its combat and operational presence in Iraq, winding down to an advisory role. Iraqi forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga are expected to lead security efforts, with the government emphasising sovereignty while pro-Iran factions press for disarmament and continued influence.

What's behind the headline?

Analysis

• The end of combat missions marks a strategic shift from external military backing to domestic sovereignty, but raises questions about capacity gaps in intelligence and special operations that may persist.
• Iraqi authorities are pushing to regulate weapons outside state control, a move that could reshape power balances with Iran-aligned factions.
• Regional dynamics remain fluid: while Daesh no longer controls territory, its residual presence could re-emerge if governance and security institutions weaken.
• This transition creates opportunities for Iraq to demonstrate institutional strength, but also risks a security vacuum if disarmament commitments falter.

Forecast: If Baghdad maintains disciplined governance and credible security provisions, the transition could stabilise western Iraq and Kurdistan. If not, pro-Iran factions may exploit gaps to extend influence or launch reprisals.

How we got here

The coalition’s mission against Daesh began in 2014, aiming to defeat the group in Iraq and Syria. By 2017-2019, Daesh had lost territory, yet remnants remained. A 2024 US-Iraq joint statement outlined wind-down plans, culminating in today’s formal conclusion and a shift toward state-led security arrangements.

Our analysis

Arab News reports on the formal end of Operation Inherent Resolve and quotes Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on Sovereignty Day; regional analysts from Chatham House and the New Lines Institute weigh in on capability and risks. The New Arab provides detail on military bases and legacy structures; additional context from multiple sources highlights the complexity of disarmament talks and faction pressures.

Go deeper

• What happens next for weapons regulation across Iraqi factions?
• Will Iraqi forces maintain counter-Daesh capabilities without coalition support?
• How might tensions with Iran-aligned groups influence Iraq’s sovereignty?

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