What's happened
Pakistan is navigating increased regional tensions amid Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, its defense commitments, and domestic protests following Iran's killing of Khamenei. The country is balancing its alliances with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the US amid escalating violence and sectarian unrest.
What's behind the headline?
Pakistan's current predicament is a direct consequence of its strategic balancing act in a volatile region. The country's defense pact with Saudi Arabia, signed in September 2025, commits it to defend Riyadh against aggression, but this alliance is tested as Iran's missile strikes escalate. Pakistan's efforts to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia through back-channel diplomacy highlight its desire to avoid direct involvement, yet its geographic proximity and internal sectarian divisions make it increasingly difficult to remain neutral. The recent protests and violence reflect deep-seated sectarian tensions, especially among Pakistan's Shi'ite minority, which feels increasingly aligned with Iran's leadership. The killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has ignited protests that threaten internal stability, with some demonstrators calling for revenge and expressing anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments. The situation underscores Pakistan's fragile position: it risks alienating its Gulf allies if it fails to uphold its defense commitments, while also facing internal unrest that could spiral into broader instability. The next weeks will determine whether Pakistan can maintain its diplomatic balancing act or if regional tensions will force it into a more direct role in the conflict, potentially destabilizing the country further.
How we got here
Since September 2025, Pakistan strengthened its defense ties with Saudi Arabia through a mutual pact, amid regional instability following Israel's strikes on Hamas and Iran's retaliatory attacks. Pakistan's border with Iran and its large Shi'ite minority complicate its position as regional tensions rise, with protests erupting over Iran's killing of Khamenei and US-Israeli actions. Historically, Pakistan's sectarian divisions and strategic alliances have shaped its response to Middle Eastern conflicts, balancing domestic sectarian sentiments with international commitments.
Our analysis
Al Jazeera reports that Pakistan is actively engaging regional leaders to navigate the escalating conflict, emphasizing its defense obligations to Saudi Arabia and its efforts to mediate between Iran and Riyadh. The article highlights Pakistan's diplomatic efforts, including back-channel communications and assurances sought from Iran and Saudi Arabia. Reuters adds that Pakistan is trying to balance its alliance with the US and its internal sectarian tensions, especially among its Shi'ite community, which has reacted strongly to Iran's killing of Khamenei. The protests and violence in Karachi and Skardu, including clashes with police and attacks on US diplomatic facilities, illustrate the internal challenges Pakistan faces amid regional turmoil. Both sources underscore Pakistan's precarious position, caught between regional alliances and internal sectarian divides, with the potential for escalation if the conflict widens.
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Pakistan - Country in South Asia
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