US and Iran trade on ceasefire deal

What's happened

As of 09 May 2026, the US has said it is reviewing a 14-point peace proposal sent by Iran via Pakistani mediators while Tehran has been tempering expectations, calling the US offer a "wish list." President Trump has signalled talks are "very good" and a deal "very possible," but has also warned military action remains on the table.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening now

• Iran has submitted a 14-point proposal to Pakistan that is focused on ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz; the US has received a concept briefing and is reviewing exact wording.
• The US administration is signalling cautious optimism while also keeping military options public: Trump has said talks are "very good" and a deal is "very possible," and he has warned that strikes remain an option if Iran "misbehaves."

What drives the impasse

• Iran is offering to open shipping and lift the blockade in exchange for withdrawal of US forces, release of frozen assets, lifting sanctions, compensation and guarantees against future attacks. That moves nuclear issues to a later stage.
• The US is maintaining its core demand: any final agreement must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. These demands are mutually exclusive in public statements and are hardlining domestic audiences in both countries.

Likely near-term outcomes

• Negotiations will remain fragile and transactional. Talks will intensify through Pakistani mediators in the coming days as both sides trade technical wording.
• If wording fails to reconcile guarantees on nuclear constraints with Iran's insistence on lifted sanctions and security guarantees, the ceasefire will hold temporarily but will not convert into a durable peace.
• If a deal is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets will cool quickly; if talks collapse, oil prices will surge and the US will resume military pressure.

Why this matters to readers

• Reopening the Strait will restore roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows and will reduce energy prices. Continued blockade will keep prices elevated and deepen economic pain in Iran, pushing Tehran to harden its posture.

Forecast (firm)

• Talks will either produce a limited, verifiable short-term deal about shipping and a temporary easing of blockades, or they will collapse and the US will resume strikes within weeks.

How we got here

A ceasefire has been holding since 8 April after US and Israeli strikes launched the war in February. Pakistan has hosted one failed round of direct talks. Iran is proposing reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the US blockade in return for delaying nuclear talks; the US insists any deal must block Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Our analysis

The coverage is consistent on the core facts but differs in tone and emphasis. The Guardian reports that Trump has been "signalling" talks were "very good" while Iranian parliament figures dismissed the US proposal as an "American wish list" — illustrating the mismatch between public US optimism and Iranian scepticism. (The Guardian, 07 May 2026). France 24 and The Independent describe the 14-point Iranian plan delivered via Pakistan and highlight Tehran's offer to open the Strait of Hormuz while deferring nuclear talks; France 24 quotes a Revolutionary Guards statement framing the choice as "an impossible operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran" (France 24, 03 May & 02 May 2026). The New York Times notes Trump had only been briefed on the "concept of the deal" and had not seen details before saying he would review exact wording (New York Times, 03 May 2026). Multiple outlets report Trump posting on Truth Social that Iran "has not yet paid a big enough price" — a direct quote that shows domestic political pressure shaping the US stance (SBS; The Guardian). Reuters and AP reporting, echoed by SBS, underline that Pakistan is acting as mediator and that oil markets briefly reacted to the news. Together the sources show: Iran is presenting concrete, multi-point concessions; the US is publicly open to negotiation while signalling demands that Iran sees as unacceptable; and mediators in Pakistan are central to any progress. Readers should consult the Guardian for detailed reporting on political statements, France 24 for the text and market impacts, and the New York Times for the US administration's internal positioning.

Go deeper

• What exactly are the 14 points Iran has sent to Pakistan?
• How quickly would reopening the Strait of Hormuz affect global oil prices?
• What guarantees would satisfy US demands on Iran's nuclear programme?

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