What's happened
A think tank warns that China’s military expansion could quickly and dramatically raise the threat to Australia by basing long-range bombers and missiles closer to the region. The analysis notes capability growth, with potential deployment near Australia and new bases increasing the frequency of strikes.
What's behind the headline?
Key points
- China’s military expansion is altering the Indo-Pacific balance of power. The Lowy Institute warns that a long-range bomber or the relocation of existing forces closer to Australia could dramatically increase strike threats.
- Expert commentary stresses that capability growth is the main driver, with politics and alliance dynamics shaping the response.
- Australia has ramped up its defence posture, including nuclear submarines under AUKUS and increased defense spending, to blunt future threats.
Implications
- If China fields a long-range bomber or stations missiles near Australia, Canberra will face higher risk of more frequent attacks and greater regional influence from Beijing.
- The analysis urges a more informed national discussion on China’s capabilities and longer-term strategy, beyond current diplomatic relations.
How we got here
The Lowy Institute and other sources have highlighted China’s increasing ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific, including discussions of a possible H-20 bomber and the deployment of missiles to bases near Australia. Australia has responded with defence policy commitments and international security partnerships to bolster deterrence and readiness.
Our analysis
The Japan Times, Independent Business, Reuters; commentary from Sam Roggeveen (Lowy Institute) and direct quotes from defence officials and researchers.
Go deeper
- Will Australia alter its defence posture further in light of new capabilities?
- What would be the timeline for any potential long-range bomber deployment near Australia?
- How are regional partners responding to China’s power projection?
More on these topics
-
Australia - Country in Oceania
Australia, officially known as the Commonwealth of Australia, is a sovereign country comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands.
-
Lowy Institute - Think tank
The Lowy Institute is an independent think tank founded in April 2003 by Frank Lowy to conduct original, policy-relevant research about international political, strategic and economic issues from an Australian perspective.
-
South China Sea - Sea
The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean. It is bounded in the north by the shores of South China, in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan and northwestern Philippines, and in the south by B
-
People's Republic of China - Country in East Asia
China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of around 1.4 billion in 2019.