Marginal sea at the heart of Asia’s security and trade
Taiwan faces intensified pressure as China expands coast guard patrols and maritime activities near its east coast. Western capitals warn that regional stability is at risk, while Taiwan conducts drills to test rapid deployment amid ongoing defence modernization and new drone capabilities being debated in Taipei.
The Balikatan exercises are extending to include Japan, Canada and France, with more than 17,000 personnel from the Philippines, United States and allies practicing coastal defense, maritime operations and live-fire drills across multiple locations through May 8. The drills highlight a broadened security network amid ongoing tensions in the South China Sea.
Taiwan has maintained its stance on sovereignty over Itu Aba (Taiping) in the Spratly Islands and carried out environmental and humanitarian drills, including a beach cleanup on Zhongzhou Reef. The Coast Guard says the exercise aims to support sovereignty while avoiding regional tension, amid protests from Vietnam and competing claims from China.
The South China Sea remains volatile as Manila and Beijing exchange coast guard actions around Sandy Cay and Scarborough Shoal. Philippine coast guard identifies Chinese vessels and personnel deemed illegal, while Taiwan’s minister notes sovereignty patrols and environmental drills in Spratly-held Itu Aba and Zhongzhou Reef amid ongoing US‑Philippine exercises.
ASEAN leaders are coordinating a regional response to energy and food security amid disruptions from the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The Philippines is chairing the Cebu summit, pushing a voluntary oil-sharing framework, a regional power grid, and measures to diversify energy sources while maintaining open sea lanes.
At the Shangri‑La Dialogue in Singapore this week, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has urged Indo‑Pacific partners to build their own militaries while affirming continued U.S. commitment. The administration has paused a congressionally approved up‑to‑$14bn arms package for Taiwan while reviewing munitions used in Operation Epic Fury; Taipei says it has not been formally notified.
The Philippines is reinforcing its defense partnerships and upgrading infrastructure as regional tensions in the South China Sea and around Taiwan intensify. Manila says it remains resilient amid Chinese pressure while expanding alliances with the United States and other partners. Vietnam hosts a state visit signaling deeper security cooperation.
The Philippines has confirmed reports of a floating structure at Scarborough Shoal and is reviewing satellite imagery and raw information. Manila has lodged protests, while China maintains sovereignty claims. The dispute continues to unfold amid ongoing maritime exercises and international scrutiny.
Since early June, Chinese coast guard and survey ships have intensified activity near Taiwan and Pratas Island, prompting Taiwan to condemn Beijing’s maritime claims. Several incidents involve harassing inquiries, standoffs, and expulsions, with Taiwan emphasizing sovereignty and international law.
Taiwan is expanding its anti-ship missile stockpile and modernising its forces to deter a potential Chinese invasion. The plan includes Harpoon and Hsiung Feng missiles, greater mobility, and longer-range options to create a defendable sea corridor and threaten invading fleets.
China has dispatched coast guard ships to waters east of Taiwan in a move described as law-enforcement, amid Japan and the Philippines initiating maritime boundary talks. Taiwan denounces Beijing’s actions as an overreach and a threat to regional sovereignty. The situation involves the Pratas Islands and ongoing Chinese maritime patrols.
Beijing has banned Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and his family from entering China, including Hong Kong and Macau, over remarks Beijing deems harmful to its interests. Manila calls the move unfounded and vows to defend territorial integrity as Manila tightens security ties with the United States and allies.
A think tank warns that China’s military expansion could quickly and dramatically raise the threat to Australia by basing long-range bombers and missiles closer to the region. The analysis notes capability growth, with potential deployment near Australia and new bases increasing the frequency of strikes.
NATO and allied nations are accelerating development and deployment of cheaper, scalable defenses in response to drone threats and rapid battlefield innovation. Ukraine’s front-line feedback is driving faster iteration, with manufacturers delivering updates within days or weeks as the war reshapes planning for 2030-era air defense.
Taiwan and the United States continue to push for stronger defense cooperation as Washington’s arms-sale process remains under review. Taiwan is increasing defense spending and seeking timely deliveries while urging readiness for potential cross-strait tensions. Beijing maintains pressure but the United States signals ongoing support within its legal framework.
European defense manufacturers are increasingly dispersing production across multiple sites in response to Russian attacks in Ukraine. Leaders say distributed manufacturing is essential for resilience, with European firms urged to avoid gigafactories and to spread risk across several sites and geographies.
Taiwan has started five days of Immediate Combat Readiness Exercises to test rapid deployment and wartime transition, while China conducts drills nearby. The exercises involve live-fire, real-time responses, and larger regional tensions with frequent Chinese air and sea activity around Taiwan.
The Guardian, The Japan Times, AP News, and others report Beijing’s export controls on dual-use items target Japanese firms as Tokyo expands its defense posture. Detentions of Japanese nationals in China over alleged rare-earths-related export violations are intensifying the diplomatic row. The moves come after Japanese comments on Taiwan and potential military action raised Beijing’s alarm.
The Philippines is watching a high-stakes impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, with more than 6,000 police deployed around the Senate as prosecutors present the case alleging misuse of funds, unexplained wealth, and threats. The proceeding could shape the 2028 presidential race and the Duterte-Marcos political dynamic.
China has test‑launched a long‑range ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine into the South Pacific at 12:01pm Beijing time on Monday, carrying a dummy warhead, Xinhua has reported. Beijing has said the launch was routine annual training and notified relevant countries; Australia, New Zealand and Japan have voiced concern and called the test destabilising.