BRICS summit tests rival ties

What's happened

Leaders from BRICS and newly admitted members have arrived in New Delhi for a two-day summit beginning Sept. 12. Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian have travelled to India; Narendra Modi has held bilateral talks with several visitors. Delegates are confronting the US‑Israel war on Iran, the Ukraine conflict, trade tensions and energy security.

What's behind the headline?

What the summit will decide

• BRICS is using the Delhi meeting to deepen economic cooperation: leaders are discussing cross‑border payments, local‑currency trade and energy deals to reduce dependence on western systems.
• The expanded membership has turned BRICS into a test of cohesion: disagreements over the US‑Israel attack on Iran and the war in Ukraine are forcing countries to choose language that will not alienate either Tehran or Abu Dhabi.

India’s balancing act

• India has been repairing relations with both China and Russia while protecting ties with the West. Modi has been holding bilateral talks — including with Putin and Xi — to secure energy and trade deals and to manage border friction.
• India will press for predictable market access and measures to cut its widening trade deficit with China; Delhi has already relaxed some investment rules and restored flights.

Why this matters now

• Energy and trade shocks caused by the Iran conflict and the Ukraine war are increasing the value of alternative payment and supply arrangements within BRICS. This will push members to agree practical mechanisms, not grand ideological statements.

Forecast

• The summit will produce a cautious, general joint declaration that avoids naming parties in Middle East fighting but will pledge opposition to unilateral economic measures. Expect incremental agreements on payments and trade in local currencies, and a limited bilateral roadmap between India and China on border management and trade access.

Consequences

• A modest BRICS economic package will accelerate parallel payment systems and deepen energy ties among members, which will reduce some members' reliance on western financial tools but will not overturn existing sanctions regimes.
• India’s engagement with China will reduce immediate tensions but will not resolve core border disputes; incidents on the frontier will continue to require diplomatic management.

How we got here

BRICS began in 2009 to boost emerging economies' influence. The group has expanded to 11 members, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. India and China have been restoring ties after deadly 2020 border clashes, but a large trade deficit and strategic mistrust persist.

Our analysis

CNBC reported that Modi and Xi used summit sidelines to agree on "a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable" approach to the border and to address "structural trade imbalance, supply chain issues and predictable market access" (CNBC, Sept. 12). The Guardian described Xi's arrival and the symbolic thaw: "Xi stepped off the plane" and was greeted with ceremony, and the paper flagged that expansion of BRICS "has also created new fractures and disunity" (The Guardian, Sept. 12). Arab News and The New Arab emphasised the summit's agenda: "Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as global trade turbulence and oil" are expected issues, and both noted protests by Tibetans in New Delhi (Arab News, Sept. 11; The New Arab, Sept. 11). Bloomberg and France 24 highlighted the leaders' bilateral meetings: Putin and Pezeshkian were due to meet Modi, and Xi's participation is a litmus test for India‑China ties (Bloomberg, Sept. 11; France 24, Sept. 11). Al Jazeera and The Independent emphasised security arrangements in Delhi and the broad challenge of producing a joint statement after foreign ministers failed to agree in May (Al Jazeera, Sept. 11; Independent, Sept. 11). Across these accounts, direct quotes guide the contrast: CNBC states Modi and Xi agreed to take a "strategic and long-term perspective of their ties"; The Guardian quotes experts that "the 11 members cannot speak with one voice on many issues." These differences show that reporting focuses either on diplomatic symbolism and bilateral progress (CNBC, Bloomberg) or on the structural limits to consensus caused by divergent members (The Guardian, Arab News).

Go deeper

• What concrete trade measures has India proposed to reduce its deficit with China?
• Will BRICS agree on a payments mechanism that bypasses western systems?
• How will India manage border incidents if economic ties with China deepen?

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