What's happened
Recent revisions to UK retail sales data reveal lower growth than initially reported, due to errors in seasonal adjustment. July sales increased by 0.6%, driven by online shopping and good weather, but three-month figures show a decline. Data delays and corrections highlight ongoing issues at the ONS.
What's behind the headline?
The recent revisions to UK retail sales data underscore systemic problems at the ONS, which has struggled with data accuracy and transparency. The correction of seasonal adjustment errors reveals that earlier reports overstated growth, especially in the first half of 2025. This ongoing issue diminishes confidence in official statistics, which are crucial for economic policymaking. The divergence between Halifax and Nationwide house price reports highlights the fragility of UK economic indicators, with Halifax showing record-high prices while Nationwide reports declines, reflecting market uncertainty. The delayed and revised retail figures suggest that the UK economy's recovery is more fragile than initially thought, with consumer spending weakening in recent months. The persistent inflationary pressures, rising costs, and data quality issues will likely complicate the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions, potentially delaying rate hikes or prompting more cautious measures. Overall, these developments point to a cautious outlook for the UK economy, with data integrity and consumer confidence remaining key concerns.
What the papers say
The Guardian highlights the delays and errors at the ONS, emphasizing the impact on economic data reliability, with quotes from James Benford about the need for improved transparency. The Independent provides detailed analysis of the retail sales figures, noting the influence of weather, sporting events, and online shopping, while also discussing the revisions and their implications. AP News reports on the latest retail sales increase of 0.7% excluding volatile auto sales, indicating a modest recovery, but also notes the decline in three-month figures. The contrasting reports from Halifax and Nationwide on house prices illustrate ongoing market uncertainty, with Halifax citing stability and Nationwide noting declines, reflecting mixed signals in the housing market.
How we got here
The ONS's retail sales data has been delayed and revised multiple times this year due to errors in seasonal adjustment and data alignment with calendar effects. These issues have caused overstatements in earlier figures and reflect ongoing challenges within the UK's official statistics body, impacting economic analysis and policy planning.
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Why Are UK Retail Sales Growth Figures Being Revised Downward?
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The Office for National Statistics is the executive office of the UK Statistics Authority, a non-ministerial department which reports directly to the UK Parliament.
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The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom or Britain, is a sovereign country located off the northwestern coast of the European mainland.
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The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.